Text | Xiaoxiang 12th Floor

Editor at the 12th floor.

The Philippine political world has recently been "enlarged" again, and an explosive material about Taiwan suddenly exploded:President Marcos is accused of implicitly promoting unofficial military exchanges and allegedly ¡°recognizing Taiwan.¡±Although the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is still talking about "one-China policy" in the mouth, the actions are increasingly "shaking sides", which makes the Chinese side highly alert.

The mystery behind this turmoil is not only the Philippines '"little move", but also the epitome of the game between major powers. The Taiwan issue is the "trump card" that China cannot touch, but now some people in the Philippine political arena are beginning to "test the water temperature". How will China react? And behind this, who is fueling the flames? Is the Marcos government walking a tightrope or playing with fire?

While saying "firm support", secretly communicating-what exactly is Marcos singing?

Despite the good words of the Marcos government, the Foreign Ministry statement in August also reaffirmed its support for the "one-China policy". But at the same time,However, the Philippines frequently reported "unofficial" military exchanges and economic and trade visits to TaiwanThis is not a ¡°diplomatic dictum¡± that can be confused.

According to Philippine media, some pro-US officials are promoting "quasi-official interaction" with TaiwanThis includes the so-called "economic and trade expeditions" and "security cooperation" discussions, while Lin Jiao Long's recent visit to Manila has been interpreted by the outside world as the "dark line communication" between Taipei and Taiwan.

Faced with media inquiries, Foreign Minister Lazzaro also responded only vaguely, not positively denying, not daring to acknowledge - this operation, as it seems, has a bit of "there is no silver three hundred and two".

And even more striking is,There are also divisions within the Senate¡£ The president's sister Ime Marcos publicly warned the political arena not to "annoy China" and called for restraint towards Taiwan, which was interpreted by many people as "killing relatives for righteousness". But on the other hand, Senator Tulfer questioned that "the one-China policy is too constrained to Philippine diplomacy" and even jointly asked for "reassessing relations with Taiwan".

On the surface, this battle is a dispute of policy orientation.In essence, it is a power struggle between pro-Americans and pragmatists in the Philippines¡£However, Marcos is caught in the middle and is in a dilemma. On the one hand, he does not dare to offend the United States, and on the other hand, he does not want to completely anger China. The end result is that policies become increasingly vague and behaviors become increasingly risky.

Behind the Taiwan card lies the Philippines' strategic anxiety

Why did the Philippines step on the red line?Want to use the Taiwan issue in exchange for China's concession in the South China Sea¡£But this move is really not smart.

Historically, the Philippines' policy toward Taiwan has always swung between economy and securityOn the one hand, there are more than 200,000 Filipino workers in Taiwan, and the remittances brought back every year are the economic lifeline of many families in the country.

On the other hand, the US-Philippines alliance has made the Philippines highly dependent on the United States for security. Since taking office, Marcos has obviously moved closer to the United States, giving the United States more military base authority, and frequently provoking China on the South China Sea issue.

But the problem is,The Taiwan issue is not a bargaining chip, but a sovereignty issue for China¡£Trying to trade Taiwan is neither realistic nor very dangerous. It is not that China has never seen small tricks of "using the Taiwan issue to extort money," but this time it is the Philippines, and the nature is different.

The Philippines may have misjudged three things: First, underestimating China's strategic determination on the Taiwan Strait issue; Second, overestimating the consequences that the United States will bear for it; Third, it ignores its own vulnerability in the regional pattern. Once China's counter-measures escalate, can the Philippines afford it?

Looking back at the past, China has shown mature legal struggle and diplomatic counter-attack capabilities in dealing with the South China Sea arbitration case.Strong protests were launched at the diplomatic level, coordinated with the Coast Guard to regulate law enforcement, and even restricted agricultural product imports and infrastructure cooperation.¡£This is by no means good news for an export-dependent country like the Philippines.

Is the opportunity China is waiting for to "edge the ball" or "return to the right path"?

In fact, this show clearly shows China¡¯s reality:The Philippines is testing China¡¯s bottom line, while also testing the region¡¯s reaction.But it is precisely for that reason that it instead gives China a chance ¨C to pull the vague band back to clear borders.

China's position does not need to be repeated too much.From the Cairo Declaration and Potsdam Proclamation to Resolution 2758, the legal basis for the Taiwan issue has long been established¡£ 183 countries in the world have established diplomatic relations with China and recognized the one-China principle, and the Philippines is no exception. If you go back on your word now, you will not only abandon the international consensus, but also damage your own credibility.

At the same time,China's actual control of the South China Sea is increasing.¡£Coast police patrols in Renai Reef, Huangyan Island and other places have become the norm, and regional countries are well aware of this. Coupled with the "leverage" of economic and infrastructure cooperation, China is fully capable of exerting pressure "as far as possible" without triggering a full-scale confrontation.

Although the United States is behind the scenes, it does not dare to openly support the Philippines in challenging China's sovereignty¡£ Once the gun goes wrong, I'm afraid even Marcos himself has no idea whether the United States will really stand up for the Philippines.

More importantly,ASEAN countries are clear.: No one wants the fire in the Taiwan Strait to burn to their doorstep, especially at the moment when negotiations on the South China Sea Code of Conduct are accelerating, any provocative behavior may undermine regional stability. If the Philippines really jumps too high, it may be "isolated from the ASEAN consensus".

conclusion

Marcos's move is both risky and vague. He wants to please the United States and is afraid of offending China. The result may be unflattering.If the Philippines continues to play the sideline on the Taiwan issue, it cannot be ruled out that China will directly counter it with South China Sea actionsThen the real challenge begins.

China is not afraid of the game, not afraid of waiting. As long as the bottom line is not broken, the strategic space is always in hand. For the Philippines, instead of trying at the tip of the wind, it is better to return to the rational track as soon as possible. History will not repeat, but will bet on those who see the direction clearly.

Taiwan is not a transaction code, but a core of sovereignty. China¡¯s patience is for peace, not for provocation. The Philippines should understand that the real opportunity is not to win in trials, but in respect.