Connecting from north to south, with a speed of 350 kilometers per hour, Vietnam's new economic artery!The "national business card" that once made the whole of Vietnam excited has now become a joke in the international bidding community and a negative example for neighboring countries. Regarding high-speed rail, what has Vietnam done?
In China, the high-speed rail is common in the air, but in some countries it has become an unattainable dream, so is our neighbor Vietnam.The long coastline is easy to carry out sea transport, the narrow territory of the south and north, plus Vietnam has always wanted to be the ASEAN's "turn center", high-speed rail construction is imminent, butVietnam's operation was as fierce as a tiger, and in the end the high-speed rail dream was almost shattered, and it became the laughing stock in the international infrastructure bidding field。What is the mystery behind a series of operations in Vietnam?
Vietnam's "High-Speed Rail Dream"
Before, walking on the streets of Vietnam, you can often see about high-speed rail propaganda, "350 kilometers per hour, Vietnam's new economic artery", which isThe Vietnamese government has made promises to the people, but now it is likely to be relaxed.。
As early as 2001, the Vietnam government formulated the "Trans-Asian Railway Plan", claiming to become a material distribution center in Southeast Asia, build the fastest high-speed rail in Southeast Asia, and become a "land crossroads" in Southeast Asia.
In 2006, Vietnam formally proposed the "North-South High-Speed Rail" planIt is a traffic artery connecting the northern Hanoi with the southern city of Ho Chi Minh, with a total length of 1,541 kilometers, train design 350 kilometers per hour, crossing 20 provincial administrative districts of Vietnam.
According to Vietnam's plans, after the construction of the high-speed railway line, the run time of trains between the two countries can be shortened from the original more than 30 hours directly to 5 hours, and the logistics cost is closer to the end.
Due to the special geographical environment of Vietnam, building high-speed rail is undoubtedly a good choice. However, when the high-speed rail budget came out, the Vietnam government became collectively silent. This silence is simply deafening for some countries.
When the high-speed rail plan was first submitted to Congress for consideration in 2010$55.8 billion, equivalent to 40% of Vietnam’s GDP at the time.The money for building the high-speed rail can be given to public schools across the country, each building 3 good teaching buildings
Without their own technology, can only find other countries to seek cooperation, the cost of high-speed rail per kilometer is 8 times the ordinary railway, and Vietnam's backward economy can not support this railway, traffic counting is expected to be only one-third of the design traffic counting.
The gap between reality and dreams is too big, and Vietnam is hesitant to build high-speed rail, so things have been dragging down.Until the end of 2024, the Vietnamese government reiterated the old, eventually passing a resolution to build high-speed railways.
More than ten years have passed,The planned $55.80 billion investment has grown to $67 billionThis is undoubtedly a huge financial burden for Vietnam.
The reason why the investment is so large is because the Vietnam Railways used the Mi Railway before, the railway between the tracks is limited, the capacity is seriously insufficient, and Vietnam itself is aware of this problem.
On the other hand, Vietnam does not have its own high-speed rail technology, and several countries that have passed high-speed rail technology, adopted the standard track of 1435 mm. Vietnam's high-speed rail construction is equivalent to starting from scratch, the original infrastructure is not useful at all.
Half-hearted eating is ugly
Vietnam has no relevant technology to build high-speed rail, so it can only seek help from other countries with mature technologies, butDuring the negotiation process, Vietnam showed half-hearted。
The only countries in the world with reliable high-speed rail technology are China and Japan, and South Korea's technology can barely squeeze in. Due to the cost of France's high-speed rail construction, Vietnam is completely unable to afford it. EventuallyThere are only three countries expected to undertake high-speed rail orders in Vietnam, including China, Japan and South Korea。
Japan's high-speed rail technology has developed early and has always been the "white moonlight" in Vietnam's heartWhen the high-speed rail construction plan was first proposed more than 20 years ago, Vietnam preferred Japanese technology.
However, Japan ultimately did not agree to Vietnam, mainly due to funding and other issues. Of course, Japan's infrastructure level is also limited, and Vietnam's complex geographical environment and tropical climate environment will also bring a lot of trouble to the project.
As for South Korea, its own high-speed rail technology is not much to praise, and it is not difficult to deal with Vietnam's high-speed rail construction project. In the end, Vietnam has only one choice left, and that is China.
During the negotiations,The conditions put forward by Vietnam are too harsh, resulting in repeated delays in the high-speed rail project。According to Vietnam's plan, the Vietnam government will dominate the project investment budget, and the construction company will advance the project funds in the form of loans.
These conditions are nothing. The real hoax operation has just begun. Vietnam requires that the loan interest rate be no higher than 1.5%, and no political conditions should be attached.
More importantly, after the completion of the high-speed rail, the operation dominance belongs to Vietnam, which means that the previous loan has no guarantee, and whether it can be recovered depends on Vietnam's face.
Finally, Vietnam also requires that all aspects involved in the construction of high-speed railAll technical patents must be transferred to the Vietnam Railway Corporation free of charge, and also build a factory in Vietnam to recruit local workers for production.
This is preparing to build a high-speed railway line that will solve the problems of technology and employment together, and also train mature industrial workers, which has made Vietnam understandable.
Naturally, no company would agree to such harsh conditions. In the end, the Vietnamese government had no choice but to let a Vietnamese private enterprise take the lead. It hoped to turn the high-speed rail from a government project into an enterprise cooperation project, but it still could not reassure the partners.
The real difficulties of railway construction
In addition to the strict demands from Vietnam,There are many unfavorable factors in the high-speed rail construction project, which also affects the construction of high-speed rail in Vietnam to a certain extent。
The Vietnamese government has raised the project budget from more than $55 billion to $67 billion, looking to increase a little, but the total length of the high-speed railway is 1.541 kilometers, with an average budget of just over $43 million per kilometer.
China builds its own high-speed rail, which costs about 180 million yuan per kilometer in plain areas, 280 million yuan in mountainous areas, and 350 million yuan in more complex terrain.
The above prices are still in our own country, the cost of high-speed railways abroad must definitely increase, and the budget of 300 million per kilometre in Vietnam is a problem, whether the construction of enterprises can ultimately be profitable.
The cost of this construction in our country is still relatively low, you knowHigh-speed rail offers in France and Japan, up to $200 million per kilometerVietnam now gives only one-fifth of the bid, and it’s no wonder that France and Japan are automatically excluded.
The high-speed rail line planned by Vietnam will cross the Changshan Mountainskarst landformThe area is more than 660 kilometers long, with hundreds of undiscovered holes underground, bringing more uncertainty to the project construction.
There is also a long period of time in the Xiyuan Plateau270 kilometers of expansive soil subgradeThe high temperatures and rainy climate in Vietnam have changed this location too much for this special situation, and currently only China and Germany have mature solutions in the world.
Privateization of land in Vietnam is also an obstacle to high-speed rail construction.。More than 68% of the land on the entire planned route is privately owned, and 30% of it is a "permanent tax-free land" for the families of Vietnam War martyrs.
In the process of compensation negotiation for land requisition, there is never a shortage of nail households with sky-high prices, no matter which country is no exception. During a negotiation in Nghe An Province, the landowner proposed a compensation price of US $9,000/square meter.
The normal commercial land price in the local area is only $300, which is the feeling of wanting to sell the wasteland for gold mines, which is more demanding than the conditions of the Vietnamese government.
There are too many such "nail households" and there is nothing the Vietnam government can do.The requirement to complete the three-year expedition is only a paper blank word at the end.。
The credibility of the Vietnamese government is also a concern. Unilateral changes to contracts and standards often occur during the execution of contracts. Executives at Alstom in France complain that "contracts here are just straw paper for shredding."
Strong support for other countries, Vietnam broke the defense
Vietnam's high-speed railway plans have been proposed for decades, and so far there is no great progress.Countries such as Thailand, Indonesia and Laos in Southeast Asia have begun to experience high-speed rail convenience.。
In December 2021, China's old railway officially opened, starting from China's Kunming, has been extending to Laos, with a total length of 1,035 km. This is the first multinational high-speed railway in China, and the first high-speed railway route in Laos, with significant economic significance.
This high-speed rail can be calledThe watershed of Laos' economic developmentAfter the opening of the railway, Laos' agricultural products can enter China faster, China's huge consumer market, has also injected a strong impetus into Laos' economic development.
There are channels for trade between various types of products, and there are also more convenient ways to exchange people, so that Chinese tourists can go to this small inland country in Southeast Asia more quickly and feel the exotic atmosphere.
Indonesia is also one of the beneficiaries of high-speed rail projectsAs a key transportation facility cooperation project of our country's "Belt and Road Initiative", the Yavan High-speed Railway has paved the way for win-win cooperation between China and Indonesia.
The Yavan high-speed railway, which runs at a speed of 250 kilometers per hour, has effectively promoted the economic development of the region along the railway, also attracted many tourists, and tourism revenue has also rapidly increased.
Laos and Indonesia are among the pioneers of China's high-speed rail cooperation project and are also the first to benefit. In the case of the delay in the implementation of the high-speed rail project in Vietnam,Thailand has taken the opportunity.。
There is not too much prevarication and wrangling, and my position is very correct.The first phase of China-Thailand railway project, which is built with Chinese standards, technology and equipment, will directly push Thailand to an important position of transportation hub in Southeast Asia, entrepot trade is booming.
The distance of more than 400 kilometers from Bangkok to Kunming used to take 20 hours because of traffic jams. After the completion of the high-speed rail, the transportation cost will also drop by 30% while ensuring the timeliness of land transportation.
Once the investment has benefited for years, after several countries in Southeast Asia have taken the high-speed railway in China, economic development seems to have pushed the acceleration key.。 With these successful precedents, Vietnam must be able to make the right choice in the end.
Building Vietnam's high-speed rail with the help of Chinese technology and standards can not only help Vietnam's infrastructure construction and promote Vietnam's economic development, but also bring more development dividends to the Vietnamese people. Vietnam must understand which is more important.