In the autumn of three years ago, the surface of the Baltic Sea was still calm, but a "bomb" that could pry the energy pattern of Europe had long been buried underwater. The Nord Stream pipeline explosion, a super unsolved case that spanned the interests of major powers, energy competition, and intelligence games, finally had a new movement three years later this summer: the suspect was arrested, Germany issued an arrest warrant, and Europe's "energy artery" investigation seemed to have a real explanation. But I have to make it clear first: this is not a spy war blockbuster. Information is limited, and the truth is still obscured by layers of fog. The only thing that can be seen is that all parties are coming and going in the field of public opinion, tit for tat.
NATO, which is known as the world's most powerful security alliance, has lost more than a little face in this incident. The news came from German prosecutors and many authoritative media. In August, with the assistance of Italian police, Ukraine man Sershi Kuznetsov was caught red-handed on the coast of the Adriatic Sea. European wanted notices, transnational cooperation, identity comparisons, hotel registration, and police car escort, this wave of process is quite standard. But on closer inspection, we can see that such a large case has been investigated in turn by Germany, Sweden, and Denmark over the past three years. The core information available to the public is actually the media's "revelations" and netizens 'guesses. This in itself is very interesting.
In September 2022, the two pipelines connecting Russia and Germany and covering Europe, Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, exploded in the waters near Sweden and Denmark, three of the four pipelines were destroyed and natural gas exploded, and the European energy market exploded directly. After the incident, Germany, Denmark, Sweden and the three countries immediately investigated each other and were still alive to prevent Russia from participating. The international community called for the Security Council to meet several times, and everyone hoped to find out the truth early. The results were examined for three years, Sweden and Denmark quietly announced the “end of the investigation”, and Germany continued to “dive deep”, but what the outside world could know was less pitiful.
The presence of NATO has become the biggest trough point in the audience. In June 2022, NATO just held military exercises in the explosive sea area, including underwater operations, anti-blasting, and reconnaissance. But on the day of the real explosion, nothing was found. NATO's radar, sonar, satellites, and drones seemed to be all "on strike". After the German police investigated, they found that the suspect "forged documents, rented a boat, brought equipment, dived and mined, and detonated and fled", and everything went smoothly as if he was in his own backyard. Someone joked that NATO's intelligence system encountered a direct fragment of the "yacht team"? If it wasn't for the European police themselves, who would believe it?
Now that Kuznetsov has been arrested, the media has added a lot of details: using a real Ukraine passport but a fake name, the six-man team has explosives experts and experienced captains in addition to him, and some of the members have connections to the Ukrainian intelligence department. The investigation said that they entered Germany from Poland, rented a boat in Rostock, and operated under false identities. On the day of the explosion, the ship stopped in the target area for 12 hours and completed four dives to a depth of seventy to eighty meters. Each time, the ship had to be allowed to stop quietly. Divers launched, mined, and came up, and had to avoid being discovered by patrol ships and radar. Experts directly questioned: This is not an ordinary diving, and the depth, time and technical thresholds are too high.
Even a diver in a professional army, without a decompression chamber or logistics, can operate in the deep sea for many times in a row, which is a question mark. The investigation also said that some suspects "may have something to do with the Ukrainian intelligence department or the military", but it was impossible to prove whether the operation was involved by the state. Ukrainian officials deny that mainstream Western media no longer emphasize "state behavior", but highlight "small team spontaneity." What the hell is going on? I'm not sure yet. What is certain is that the European police have locked the identities of all suspects, Germany has issued arrest warrants, and some suspects may be gone.
Russia's position is clear. Diplomatic representatives have repeatedly voiced their voices in the UN Security Council, questioning the progress of the investigations in Germany, Denmark and Sweden, and demanding that the investigation process be made public. The representative of China also stressed in the Security Council that the truth cannot be covered up, the investigation cannot be politicized, and the international community needs a statement. In the past three years, everyone can only rely on the media to "break the news" to put together the puzzle, and the official conclusion has never come out, which is very abnormal.
But one thing I’m sure: the North Stream incident is a big review of the European security system, the European Union, the global energy chain. There are no absolute innocents, no pure victims. Every link, every detail, is worth repeating. The truth may always be only half, but history will remember those moments covered by smoke. Finally, to the friends who are still asking “how NATO surveillance is a joke”: in this global game, no one is willing to admit their mistakes, but reality is often more than the script. The North Stream bubble has happened, Europe’s energy myth has been completely broken, and the rest is just a possible answer on the ruins.