At the end of August in Tianjin, the SCO summit was held as scheduled, and leaders of all member states gathered together to discuss regional cooperation and development plans.
However, only two days later, when more than twenty national leaders traveled to Beijing for the 93rd parade ceremony, people noticed:Two heavyweights have disappearedPrime Minister Modi and Turkish President Erdogan.
Both leaders have arrived in China.Participated in the Shanghai Cooperation Summit, but chose not to participate in the subsequent military paradeWhat strategic considerations and international political play are hidden behind this seemingly contradictory behavior?
An embarrassing role in World War II memories
FirstIndia and Turkey had an awkward position during World War II.You must know that the 93 military parade is first and foremost aEvents to commemorate the victory of World War IIThere are some subtleties in the historical position of India and Turkey during the Second World War.
At that time, Turkey joined the Allies late in World War II, but for most of the warChina maintained close relations with Nazi GermanyThis historical entanglement makes Erdogan feel uncomfortable on the occasion of commemorating the victory of anti-fascism.
The situation in India is more complex,At that time, India was not yet independent and was still under British colonial ruleAnd more embarrassingly, Indian national hero Chandra Baos chose to work with Japan during World War II in an attempt to overthrow British rule with the force of the Axis.
This historical background also makes India face contradictions in historical narratives when commemorating the victory of World War II.
However, international politics is always based on the consideration of practical interests, and both India and Turkey pursue it.Countries with a balanced diplomatic strategyNot wanting to exaggerate on either side.
As a member of NATO, Turkey needs to be handled with cautionRelations with the Western UnionAlthough Erdogan has repeatedly had frictions with the West in recent years, completely alienating the West is not Turkey's best choice.
Attending the military parade hosted by China may be interpreted by the West as a signal of excessive pro-China, so this is what Erdogan hopes to avoid.
whileIndia is at a delicate moment in its relationship with the United States.Despite the U.S. imposing tariffs of 50% on India, Modi still attaches importance to the “quarter-party security dialogue” mechanism with the U.S., Japan and Australia.
Therefore, participating in the Chinese parade may be interpreted asDepending on this strategic position,It is not good for India to maintain a balance between the great powers.
However, Japan played an indispensable role in this diplomatic game, Japanins good relations with India and Turkey, which are important economic partners and sources of investment.
Modi specifically visited Japan before his visit to China, shows the importance it attaches to Japan-India relations, and this move is seen as a signal to reassure Japan that India will not tilt excessively towards China.
Therefore, in such circumstances, attending the 93th parade, which was clearly directed against Japanese militarist history, would undoubtedly be seen as a "major digging pain" for Japan.
meanwhileEconomic cooperation is also a considerationJapan has a large number of investments and cooperation projects in both India and Turkey, so it is in the economic interests of both countries to avoid offending Japan.
You can see, in some cases,Economic interests often give way to geopolitical considerationsBut this time it is clear that economic factors have prevailed.
The Invisible Limits of the International Camp
But at the same time,domestic political factorsIt also affects the international behavior of leaders. If Modi attends China's 1993 military parade, he may face strong criticism from the domestic opposition and be criticized"Favorite Indian competitors".
The Indian opposition has been criticizing Modi's China policy, arguing that he is too weak on the border issue, and attending the military parade in China will only provide the opposition with more attack ammunition.
And for Erdogan,Nationalist sentiment rises in TurkeyExcessive closeness to China could also provoke discontent among domestic nationalists.
The choices of leaders’ international journeys often require the reaction of the domestic audience, and sometimes the behavior on the international stage is more directed at the domestic audience than the international community.
The 93 guest parade list itself reflects oneThe emerging international landscapeThe 26 leaders attended.Members of the SCO and partner countries of the Belt and Road and countries with anti-American traditions。
This combination breaks the G7’s tradition of ideological delimitation and presents the Eastern logic of “development priority, civilization coexistence.”
whileRussian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-unThis further reinforces the geopolitical colour of the activity.
As for India and Turkey.Countries that want to maintain a balance among the great powersJoining such a clear opposition to the Western-dominated international order is not in its national interest.
It is noteworthy that the collective absence of 93 parades by the leaders of major Western countries is similar to the Russian parade in 2015 to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the victory in the War of the Guardians, a collective absence in the Western camp that makes the absence of India and Turkey even more thoughtful.
India and Turkey both emphasize strategic autonomyTherefore, selective participation in international activities is a manifestation of this autonomy. The two countries' participation in the SCO summit instead of the military parade shows their intention to adopt different strategies in different fields. The SCO mainly focuses on regional security and economic cooperation.India and Turkey have clear interests here.
The 93th parade has a stronger ideological and historical narrative colour, and participation in it may be given meaning beyond practical meaning.
This differentiated participation strategy also reflectsThe Middle Power in the Game of the Great PowerThey neither want to be completely attached to a big country nor want to be excluded from international cooperation, so they choose to take different positions on different issues to maximize their own interests.
conclusion
93 At the scene of the military parade, 26 heads of state gathered on Chang'an Street in Beijing, while the leaders of New Delhi and Ankara were already on their way home.
Selective involvement in international occasions has become the lighthouse of diplomatic strategy, in a moment of global geopolitical restructuring.Countries are reorienting their diplomatic direction according to their own interests.
Turkey needs to balance its NATO membership with its eastern partners, while India is trying to find a balance between the US, Japan, India and Australia Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and multilateral mechanisms such as BRICS.
This delicate diplomatic dance is far from over, but only the beginning of a new era of complex international relations.
Reference articles
Yao Yuanmei: Visiting Japan first before visiting China, Modi's "little thoughts" need to be paid attention to
2025-08-29 08:33 Network of Observers
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