Thailand’s Constitutional Court ruled that Prime Minister Patton D. Sinava was removed from office for violating moral norms and ended her one-year term of office, which brought the country and its progressive economy into uncertainty again.
What happens next?
Before a new prime minister is elected by Congress, Vice Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai and the current Cabinet will take over the duties of guarding the government. The exact timing of the congressional vote is uncertain, as the Constitution does not stipulate the deadline for the session of the lower house.
This ruling of the court also kicked off fierce political negotiations. Analysts believe that Thaksin Shinawatra, as Patongdan's influential father and former prime minister, is likely to play a key role. Due to the involvement of many political parties and power brokers, Thailand's political structure is complicated, and the whole election process may be delayed.
The current ruling coalition holds the majority with a weak advantage of seven seats, which means any allied shift will have a huge impact on the political fate of the Thai Party and the Sinai family.
Who are the candidates for prime minister?
At present, a total of five candidates are still competing for the position of prime minister. One of them is Chaikasem Nitisiri, a 77-year-old former attorney general and attorney general. He has kept a low profile before, but now he is ready to stand in front of the stage. The Thai Party initially put forward three candidates, but at present only Guess Carson is supported.
Other possible prime minister candidates include Anutin Charnvirakul, 58, former Interior Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, whose Pride Thai Party withdrew from the ruling coalition in June. In addition, Energy Minister Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, former Deputy Prime Minister Jurin Laksanawisit, and 71-year-old former Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha are also on the list of candidates. Prayut Yut led the 2014 coup that overthrew the previous Pheu Thai government and currently serves as a royal adviser.
What are the conditions for becoming Prime Minister?
Before Congress votes, the candidate must get the support of at least 50 lawmakers. If he wants to be formally appointed Prime Minister, he needs to get more than half of the current 492 seats in the House of Commons, or at least 247 votes.
If no candidate succeeds in being elected, this process will be repeated until the prime minister is elected, with no fixed time limit.
What are the possible situations?
For the Thai Party to retain the position of prime minister by guessing Carson,Depends on whether Thaksin can continue to maintain some kind of alliance with Thailand's conservative establishmentThis powerful conservative camp has enormous political power that can at any time hinder his political ambitions.
Although conservative elders have a complex history with Thaksin, some analysts point out that they may view the latter as the "lesser of two evils" choice. If Thaksin's influence gradually wanes, the possibility of holding an early election will increase, which may open up opportunities for the BJP. The progressive opposition party, with its reform agenda, challenges the interests of conservative and royalist military.
While Carson could be an interim solution, his political experience is limited and he is seen as unlikely to push through substantive reforms or revive the economy. In that case, political turmoil is likely to persist, with little hope of economic improvement in the short term.
Another possibility is that Mr. Anutin becomes prime minister, but he needs the support of both the former governing coalition and the BJP, which has hinted that it would back Mr. Anutin if he promised early elections. The final awkward compromise would be for Mr. Prayuth to return to power, but that would require him to work with the bitterly divided Pheu Thai party.