Why does the Philippines cut off its retreat at Ren 'ai Reef when its strength is vastly different and its eldest brother is unreliable? Behind the Philippines 'tough stance, is there helplessness or is there someone manipulating it?

Recently, the tensions on Ren'ai Shoal have escalated again, and the attitude of the Philippines is very tough, not only warning China not to cross the "red line", but also clarifying the conditions of the conflict -As long as their people have an accident here and someone dies, they will ask the US military for help through the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty.Everyone knows that the military gap between the two countries is overwhelming, and the United States is more unreliable, and this conflict condition will definitely fall, if the accident really happens,It is equivalent to the Philippines cutting off its own retreat. So why is the Philippines doing this? I said four points:

First of all, the Philippines has no way back.Philippine President Marcos is not having a good time now. After the mid-term election, he only won half of the seats in the Senate re-election, and his support rate dropped sharply. If he wants to pass any bill, he has to look at the face of the opposition party. This is the ruling party's big taboo. What's more, there are still old problems in China, such as inflation, backward infrastructure and the gap between the rich and the poor, so at this time,Foreign hardship has become a ¡°fast-effective medicine¡± for moving domestic contradictions away.As long as he cooperates with the hype of the Western media in the United States, distorts the normal law enforcement of the Chinese Coast Guard into "military bullying", and ignites the nationalist sentiment in the country, Marcos can temporarily stabilize his power, even if he knows that this is a chestnut out of a fire.

Secondly, there is the American factor.Every move of the Philippines has the shadow of the United States behind it. The "gray area" strategy pursued by the United States, to put it bluntly, is to weaken its opponents by non-military means, and the Philippines is just regarded as a "pawn" in this game of chess. By providing intelligence, public opinion support, and even directly planning actions, the United States encouraged the Philippines to provoke in the South China Sea, trying to drag China into long-term consumption. For example, the so-called "non-governmental organizations" organized by the Philippines are close to Renai Reef in the name of Christmas condolences and sailing competitions. In fact, these groups have deep political backgrounds; The United States also supports the Philippines in incorporating illegal arbitration results into the domestic law system in an attempt to solidify the facts of encroachment by legal means. What's even more outrageous is that every time the Philippines provokes, some western media always "happen" to be present and shoot some so-called "evidence".In doing so, the United States wants the Philippines to be "cannon fodder", hiding behind and fanning the flames, so that it does not have to take the risk of war and can contain China's development.

Then, there is the resource factor.The gold mines of the Philippines always have a day to dig, so they have to find a new growth point, and the oil and gas resources contained around the Yine Reef are very huge, the Philippines of course does not want to let go, want to control the Yine Reef, to pave the way for future development. Even though they now even supply can not send in, but as long as the "sitting beach" breaking boat still lies there, the Philippines always has the excuse to declare that it has so-called "sovereignty" over the surrounding seas. But this "pre-occupation" strategy cannot stand in international law, the Philippines bet that China will compromise because of the international public opinion.

Finally, it is the Philippines 'misjudgment. The first is to misjudge the strength of ChinaThe fact is already here. As long as China does not nod, the Philippines will not be able to transport and replenish supplies-the soldiers on the broken ship have not been able to receive supplies for hundreds of days. The Philippine transport and replenishment ship, which had been confronted with China Coast Guard for three days, was finally "escorted" back, which is the most powerful proof.Secondly, the Philippines misjudged our resolve.The Chinese side's attitude is very firm. Ren'ai Reef is China's inherent territory, and we can't let it go at all. We allow the delivery of living materials out of humanitarian reasons, and we don't want the people on board to be really hungry and thirsty, but we must not let them engage in small actions of "strengthening broken ships", let alone let them take this place as their own territory. Now that our tugboat has sailed near Ren'ai Reef, what does this mean? Presumably the Philippines should know best. After all, its ship has been on our territory for so many years, and it should have been cleared long ago. China is fulfilling its obligation to protect its own territory, and it is natural.

Someone may ask, are we so tough, are we not tough?In fact, everyone can rest assured that we in China have always acted on grounds and are not unreasonable. We are tough on this kind of behavior of the Philippines that does not abide by rules and wants to occupy other people's territory. If the Philippines is willing to be reasonable, take the initiative to tow the broken boat away and withdraw the people, wouldn't it be easier to handle? But now the Philippines refuses and still wants to hug the United States. No wonder we don't give in. To put it bluntly, the "final chapter" of the Renai Reef issue has been opened.Either the Philippines understands and clears its own broken boats and removes people; or it looks at us to deal with the rules, and there is no third way to choose.