Source: 10 data
In the U.S. market on Friday, gold continued its upward trend and climbed to its highest level since late July.Once stood at $3,440The upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data, such as business activity and employment data, could affect market pricing for the Fed’s policy outlook and dominate the short-term movement of gold.
The turmoil between US President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Governor Tim Cook has supported gold prices."I have determined that there are compelling grounds for removing you from your position," Mr. Trump wrote in the letter. Mr. Cook responded with a statement through his lawyer: "President Trump claims to have fired me'for cause, 'but there is no legal cause that could lead to my dismissal, and he does not have the authority to do so."
At the same time,Trump's renewed tariff threats have also supported gold。
The last major U.S. data release this week showed that the U.S. annual inflation measured Individual Consumer Expenditure (PCE) Price Index remained unchanged at 2.6% in July. The core PCE price index, which excludes the higher volatility in food and energy prices, rose 2.9% over the same period, up from 2.8% in June, and was in line with analyst expectations.
The Fed's preferred inflation measure rose slightly,It shows that Trump’s tariff policy is affecting the U.S. economy.
Due to the Labor Day holiday in the United States on Monday, financial marekt will be closed. On Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) data. The PMI is expected to improve slightly from 48 in July to 48.6 in August. A reading above 50 could support the dollar and weigh on gold.
The ADP jobs data and ISM services PMI are set to appear on the US economic calendar on Thursday, and market reaction to the data is likely to be relatively immediate and short-lived as investors avoid taking large positions ahead of Friday's crucial jobs report.
According to the Chicago Commodity Exchange (CME) Federal Reserve Observatory tool,The market currently expects nearly 85% of the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September.This is
Market positioning suggests that even if the disappointing August non-farm payrolls data reconfirms that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, there is little room left for the dollar to decline. However, investors may take the weak non-farm payrolls data as a signal that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates several times in the fourth quarter of this year.
According to the "Fed Watch" tool, the market has a less than 40% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times in 2025. Therefore, while the September rate cut has largely been priced in by the market, the dollar may still face continued selling pressure.
On the contrary, if non-farm payroll growth is stronger than expected and the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.2%, it is possible thatInciting market participants to tend to cut interest rates only twice this year, this willAllowing the US dollar to outperform other major currencies and triggering a bearish trend in gold before the weekend。
At the same time, market participants will continue to assess the progress of the geopolitical conflict. If tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain high, gold can at least maintain its ground until the U.S. jobs report becomes a major market driver.
gold technical analysis
FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer said that from the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator has climbed above 60, and gold continues to move away from the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs), which highlights its bullish bias.
From the upside, $3,450 (static level) will act as a temporary resistance level, followed by $3,500 (all-time high). If gold can break through this level and use it as support, then $3,600 (integer level) could be seen as the next hurdle.
From a downward perspective, the first support zone could be between $3,345 and $3,335 (the 50-day simple moving average, the 100-day simple moving average), followed by $3,285 (the 23.6% Fibonacci retreat of the upward trend from January to June) and $3,200 (the static level, the whole threshold).