Source: direct news author Zhao Zhao
On August 27, the United States imposed a comprehensive 50% tariff on Indian goods, pushing India's export industry into the "center of the storm." The labor-intensive export industries represented by textiles and gemstones are almost choked, and employment and economic growth are facing tremendous pressure.
At this juncture, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi started his trip to Asia: he first visited Japan from August 29th to 30th, then went to China to attend the Tianjin Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization from August 31st to September 1st, and is expected to meet with Chinese and Russian leaders. What kind of chess game is India planning between passive pressure and active turning around? And what "little thoughts" did Modi reveal before Japan's visit to China?
Weaponization of tariffs: India on trend
The two executive orders of the United States were superimposed, pushing the total tariff rate on India to 50%, setting a record for all trading partners. Foreign media said this was almost equivalent to a "market ban", causing India's exports to the United States to face a cliff-like decline. Indian think tanks predict that exports may plummet from $87 billion to less than $50 billion, with labor-intensive industries bearing the brunt.
This is not just a trade dispute. U.S. Vice President Vance bluntly stated in an interview that the core goal of the "strong economic levers" implemented by the Trump administration-including "sub-tariff sanctions" on India-is to "weaken Russia's ability to benefit from the oil economy." Eventually forcing Russia to agree to a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine. As India purchases a large amount of Russian oil, the United States is trying to force it to adjust its energy policies through economic pressure. As a result, India has been pushed to the forefront of the spillover effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Under this pressure, Modi has refused to accept calls from US President Trump four times in the recent past, becoming a hot topic in global public opinion. Some experts pointed out that Modi was worried that Trump would "distort the content of the call" and put India in a passive position, so he used "silence" to show strength. Domestic polls in India showed that 73% of respondents supported the government to remain tough on tariff issues. Modi's refusal to listen to the phone was interpreted as a political gesture to maintain domestic support and strengthen the image of "self-reliance".
On February 13, 2025, U.S. President Trump (right) and Indian Prime Minister Modi (left) shaken their hands while meeting at the White House.
Faced with the pressure of tariffs, India offered a "triple action" to try to break through. First, at the policy level, the Indian government has suspended import tariffs on some raw materials and accelerated trade negotiations with other countries in an attempt to expand non-US export markets; Second, at the diplomatic level, Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar emphasized that India "has a bottom line that must be adhered to", while Ambassador to Russia Kumar stated that India will continue to buy Russian oil; Third, at the corporate level, Indian state-owned oil companies have suspended spot purchases of Russian crude oil pending clear instructions from the government.
It is in such a predicament that Modi chose to set his sights on Asia. This diplomatic turn is widely interpreted by the outside world as India's strategic breakthrough under the "tariff storm".
Toyota Japan: The Real Choice for Economic Security
Modi Asia has chosen Japan for the most direct reason: the economy: Japan announced an investment plan of 10 trillion yen (about $68 billion) to be implemented in India over the next decade. This is one of the most ambitious commitments made by the Japanese government to India, aiming at deepening cooperation between the two countries in the fields of infrastructure, manufacturing, clean energy and technology.
The two countries are planning to revise the Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation, signed in 2008, to adapt to the latest situation and reposition the defence and security partnership. The “Economic Security Initiative” that the two countries are planning to promote covers areas such as semiconductors, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals and clean energy, which will help Japan deepen its integration into India’s diversified supply chain strategy.
On October 10, 2024, Japanese Prime Minister Shapiro Momo (left) and Indian Prime Minister Modi (right) shrugged their hands before holding talks in Laos.
At the geopolitical level, this choice is even more special. India and Japan both belong to the "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue" (QUAD) between the United States, Japan, India and Australia. However, against the background of Trump's increasingly unpredictable policies and the rapid cooling of India-US relations, the cohesion and stability of QUAD are being impacted. Therefore, India needs to strengthen bilateral cooperation with Japan to support itself and this mechanism; The Liberal Democratic Party led by Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba suffered successive setbacks in the election, and it also hopes to stabilize the domestic political situation through foreign commitments.
What is more noteworthy is that Modi set off for Tianjin immediately after the Tokyo talks. This closely connected itinerary design itself is a strategic signal that India is trying to "separate issues": focusing on economic security, defense cooperation and "Indo-Pacific" stability for Japan; focusing on managing tensions, restoring mutual trust and economic and trade facilitation for China. This is both risk allocation and layout.
China and India restart: cooperation is scarcer than confrontation
Following his trip to Tokyo, Modi will visit China for the first time in seven years and attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Tianjin Summit. There is no need to elaborate on the uniqueness of this node: the first visit to China since 2018, the first restart after the Galvan Valley conflict in 2020, and the historical moment of the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations.
Earlier, the Indian side on whether to attend the meeting has been "pressed out"; on August 6, the United States announced another 25% tariff that night, the Indian media collectively blasted "Modi for the future of China"; on August 18 to 20, the CPC Central Committee Political Bureau member, Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited India and met with several senior officials, the Indian side on August 19 officially confirmed the journey.
On August 18, 2025, the CPC Central Committee Political Bureau member and Foreign Minister Wang Yi (left) held a meeting in New Delhi with India's Foreign Minister Suzhou (right).
The two countries discussed the resumption of direct flights, the easing of visa restrictions, the resumption of the Himalayan border trade point; India considered to relax the investment review of Chinese enterprises, while China lifted the export restrictions on fertilizers, rare earth mines and tunnel drillers; this month, the two sides also reached a consensus on border issues, and the Chinese and Indian foreign ministers reached 10 outcomes in the talks,ining communication through diplomatic and military channels, to avoid unnecessary friction.
From the economic and trade level, China-India relations have shown resilience. Bilateral trade volume reached $1384.78 billion in 2024, an increase of 1.7% in comparison. In the context of counter-globalization and supply chain segregation, this growth itself is a signal. Both sides realize that it is meaningless to continue to consume limited resources on border friction, and more needs to focus on development, green transformation and industrial upgrading.
From the international perspective, U.S. tariffs and sanctions are armed, allowing China and India to find a common language on "insisting on strategic autonomy".China emphasizes "good neighbourhood, friendship and dragon dance", India's Foreign Minister Suzhou said that "India is a development partner and not a competitor".This shows that under external pressure and joint development demands, China and India relations are being given new momentum for cooperation.
However, the western media are keen to speculate on the "warming up" of Sino-Indian relations, simply attributing it to the pressure of US tariffs, and even speculating on the so-called "anti-American alliance". This argument actually seriously misreads the independence of the foreign policies of the two countries. CNN's comments tell part of the truth: India's adjustment of its China policy is a manifestation of its strategic independence of "putting national interests above its rigid loyalty to the camp". The reason why the prospect of "Dragon and Elephant Dancing Together" makes some American media feel anxious is essentially the remnants of the Cold War mentality. When the United States accuses India of not buying Russian oil, the implication is that it hopes that India will "choose sides"-this is in line with the logic of pulling India into the "quadrilateral mechanism" of the United States, Japan, India and Australia, and the purpose is nothing more than turning India into Washington. A pawn to contain China in the so-called "Indo-Pacific strategy". Such political coterie has proved incompatible with the complete strategic autonomy New Delhi seeks.
The two sides are building mutual trust through “list-style cooperation”: direct return shipping, visa facilitation, resumption of border trade points, rare-earth exports, enterprise investment, humanitarian exchanges... These “small actions” accumulated, are the ground for rebuilding mutual trust.
In general, Modi’s move may be a “three-hand” for the whole situation: to the United States, he wants to show the bottom line and avoid being completely constrained; to Japan, he wants to stabilize the “capstone” of economic security and industrial upgrading; to China, he wants to expand the space with pragmatic cooperation and build confidence and space for the future.
U.S. tariffs and sanctions bring uncertainty and division; What Sino-Indian cooperation releases is certainty and development. This trip to Asia forced by Trump highlights the fact that in a world full of variables, what is really scarce is not confrontation, but stable partners and sustainable cooperation. "Dragon and Elephant Dancing Together" is not only a vision, but also a general trend.