Press Release August 26th (Editor)The U.S. government proposed on Monday adding copper, silicon, silver, etc. to the 2025 list of critical minerals because they are critical to the U.S. economy and national security.

The Geological Survey, an agency of the U.S. Department of the Interior, published the draft list of 54 minerals in the Federal Register and will publicly solicit public comments within 30 days.

The picture shows a screenshot of the webpage

The latest minerals proposed to be added to the list are six, including copper, potash, silicon, silver, lead and rhenium. In addition, the U.S. Geological Survey also stated that it intends to conduct an analysis of the possibility of inclusion of uranium and metallurgical coal. Arsenic and tellurium were recommended to be removed from the list.

The list is typically updated every three years, according to the bilateral policy center, and items on the list can get federal funding, simplify licensing procedures, or become more competitive due to import tariffs.

U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Bergham said that this draft list provides a roadmap to reduce the U.S. 's dependence on critical mineral imports and expand domestic production.

Previously, the U.S. copper industry has been vigorously promoting the inclusion of copper as a key mineral listTo reflect the importance of the metal for economic and national security, the inclusion of the list will allow for funding incentives for copper exploration, mining and processing projects and simplify the licensing process.

The Trump administration has made reviving US metals and minerals production a key priority, with copper, an important material for homes, power grids and transportation, also an area of particular concern for the industry.

Juan Ignacio Díaz, Global President of the International Association of Copper Industries, said: ¡°Copper fully meets this (critical mineral) standard: it is not only the cornerstone of electrification, defense and clean energy, but its supply chain is also increasingly under pressure.

The U.S. copper industry has been vigorously pushing to list copper as a key mineral (data chart)

The industry lobbying organization American Fertilizer Association has previously been pushing to list potassium as a key mineral.In order to provide a more sufficient reason for tariff exemptions. The Trump administration issued a separate executive order in March to support increased domestic production of minerals, including key crop fertilizer potash.

Most of the potassium alkali used in the United States is imported from Canada, which accounts for approximately 80% of the mineral's imports. These supplies have not yet been subject to tariffs under the goods exemption clause under the North American Free Trade Agreement.

After the announcement was released, the shares of fertilizer companies listed in the United States rose in response, with Mosaic rising by 4.5% and Nutrien climbing by 2.9%, but then the gains narrowed.

The U.S. Geological Survey's supply chain disruption model also evaluates more than 1,200 trade disruption scenarios for 84 mineral commodities, with potential impacts on 402 industries and the overall U.S. economy. The economic impact in the model was then weighted according to the probability of the disruption scenario.

Probability weighting combines the probability of a scenario occurring with the impact of a scenario. For example, one scenario represents a complete limitation of U.S. net imports of uranium from South Africa. The impact of the scenario on U.S. GDP is estimated to be reduced by $64 billion, but its probability of occurrence is only 3.9 percent, and the probability-weighted impact is close to $2.5 billion.

Based on estimates of the probability-weighted impact of supply disruptions on the US economy, the top 10 key minerals are samarium, rhodium, lutetium, terbium, dysprosium, gallium, germanium, gadolinium, tungsten and niobium.

¡°In the U.S. economy, even losing just one key mineral could lead to chain reactions across the industry, from semiconductors to defense systems, undermining production capacity, technological leadership and U.S. employment.¡±

Extended reading

Kevin Rudd volunteered: Australia wants to be the US rare earth "fire brigade"

On August 20, local time, Kevin Rudd, former Australian Prime Minister and current Australian Ambassador to the United States, attended an event at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), during which he said that advanced military equipment such as submarines and stealth fighters relies heavily on rare earth elements, and declares that Australia and the United States are committed to reducing their dependence on China's critical minerals.

"Whether we like it or not, the reality is that our most critical actions in the military arena depend on the availability of critical minerals and rare earth supplies," he added. "As the Pentagon rushes to reduce its dependence on Chinese rare earths, as an ally of the United States, Australia stands ready to help, and we have the ability to do so."

According to Nikkei Asia, Mr. Rudd also insisted that Australia was well placed to assist the US in diversifying its supply chain. "Geology has benefited many of our countries, whether it's Australia, the US or Canada. Given our advanced mining companies, our deep capital markets and the determination of governments in Washington and Canberra to turn things around, I think we can achieve a high level of resilience in our critical mineral resources."

Previously, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said that on the rare earth issue, China's policy is in line with international practice. We are willing to continue to strengthen dialogue and cooperation in the field of export control with relevant countries and regions to jointly maintain the stability and security of the global production and supply chain.

Australian Ambassador to the United States, Terry Quinn, participates in CSIS events (photo/video)

Kevin Rudd is a politician and diplomat from the Australia Labor Party. He has held important positions such as leader of the Australia Labor Party and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Australia. He served as Prime Minister of Australia twice from 2007 to 2010 and in 2013. Rudd is known as a "China expert" because he majored in China history and literature in college and can speak fluent Chinese. His Chinese name comes from the homophonic pronunciation of his English name Kevin Rudd.

In his speech, Kevin Rudd took the U.S. Navy's latest nuclear-powered rapid attack submarine, the Virginia class submarine, as an example: "Produce a 'Virginia' class submarine, which contains approximately 4.5 short tons (1 short ton is about 0.9 metric tons) of key minerals-rare earths."

He added that much of the components of the F-35 hypersonic invisible attack fighter, including engine magnets and targeting radars and lasers, are also made with advanced rare-earth derivatives and processed products.

On March 13, 2023, then-U.S. President Biden held talks with then-British Prime Minister Sunack and Australia Prime Minister Albanese at the U.S. Naval Base in San Diego, California on the so-called "US-Australia Trilateral Security Partnership"(AUKUS) and officially announced plans to equip Australia with nuclear submarines.

According to the plan, the U.S. will sell three U.S. Virginia class nuclear submarines to Australia from the early 1930s and two more in the future, while the U.S. and Australia will work together to develop a new type of nuclear submarine and equip the U.S. and Australia in the late 1930s and early 1940s respectively.

Nikkei Asia stated that the "Virginia-class nuclear submarine is considered to be the pinnacle of U.S. military technology and a key asset for maintaining underwater superiority over China.

According to the Pentagon, a Virginia-class nuclear submarine requires 9,200 pounds (about 4,173 kilograms) of rare-earth elements; the F-35 requires more than 900 pounds (about 440 kilograms) of rare-earth elements, while an Ali Burke-class destroyer requires 5,200 pounds (about 230 kilograms) of rare-earth elements.

On July 30, 2004, in Connecticut, USA, the first "Virginia" class nuclear submarine returned to the Electric Shipyard in Groton after the first sea trial (data map/CNN)

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, China has the highest reserves of rare earths, at 44 million tons, accounting for almost half of the world's total reserves of 90 million tons. Australia ranked fourth with 5.7 million tons, behind Brazil and India. The United States ranked seventh with 1.9 million tons.

According to Hong Kong¡¯s South China Morning Post, India and Australia have recently been in talks to explore the establishment of joint ventures based on the key mineral investment partnership launched in 2022, which will not only cover procurement, but also cover the synergistic processing of rare-earth elements critical to the automotive, electronics and defense fields.

In the race to the bottom, India and Australia are edging closer to a strategic minerals partnership, positioning themselves as a counterweight to the dominance of China, which accounts for more than 60 per cent of global rare earth mining and about 90 per cent of processing output.

In recent years, India has been stepping up diplomatic efforts to consolidate its own rare earth supply chain. At the same time, Australia has also positioned itself as a leading alternative supplier of key minerals, striving to break China's monopoly in the global market.

However, the United States in the area of rare earth wants Australia to help, I am afraid that "the far water can not solve the thirst", it will still take many years.

For example, BBC in August that Iluka Resources, an Australian-based resource company, has accumulated a large amount of rare-earth inventories in recent years, but this is just a simpler part, and the processing or refining of rare-earth is another challenge.

The Wall Street Journal also reported in March this year that during the Biden administration, Australian graphite mining company "Syrah Resources" successively received hundreds of millions of dollars in loans from the U.S. government in multiple batches. However, as China steadily occupies The dominant position in the key mineral sector, these agreements and projects are either delayed or forced to suspend operations, resulting in heavy losses.

'Syrah Resources' graphite processing plant facility in Louisiana, USA

On April 2 this year, U.S. President Trump held high a "tariff stick" to the world and imposed so-called "reciprocal tariffs." Tariffs on China were once as high as 145%.

Subsequently, China immediately introduced a series of measures to retaliate with precision. In addition to imposing tariffs, it also implemented export controls on seven categories of medium and heavy rare earth related items such as samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium. The Financial Times quoted industry sources at the time as saying that China was establishing an export licensing system. In December 2024, China also announced strict controls on the export of gallium, germanium, antimony, superhard materials, graphite and other related dual-use items to the United States.

On June 7, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said that China has implemented export controls on rare earth-related items in accordance with the law, with the aim of better safeguarding national security and interests, and fulfilling international obligations such as non-proliferation, reflecting its consistent position of upholding world peace and regional stability.

The spokesperson pointed out that rare earths related items have dual-use attributes for military and civilian purposes, and the implementation of export controls on them is in line with international practice. China has noted that with the development of industries such as robots and new energy vehicles, the demand for medium and heavy rare earths in the civilian field in various countries is continuing to grow. As a responsible country, China fully considers the reasonable needs and concerns of various countries in the civil field, reviews export license applications for rare earth-related items in accordance with laws and regulations, has approved a certain number of compliance applications in accordance with the law, and will continue to strengthen compliance application approval work.

The spokesman said that China is willing to further strengthen export control communication and dialogue with relevant countries in this regard and promote the facilitation of compliance trade.