Source: Shangguan News
Thailand’s political situation is once again at a crucial point.
On the afternoon of August 29, the Thai Constitutional Court will issue a ruling on a suspected unconstitutional case against Prime Minister Peetong Tan, who was suspended due to the call door, which will not only affect his political future, but could push the second-largest economy in Southeast Asia into a new round of turmoil.
In the event of a negative ruling, Mr. Peyton would be the fifth prime minister to be removed from office by a court in Thailand since 2008, and the third prime minister in his family to be removed from office.
On the eve of the ruling, analysts believed that there were four possible directions for Thailand's political situation.
Four possible
The first possibility is that the Constitutional Court acquitted him.
There are nine judges in the Constitutional Court. If more than half of them (five or more) think that Petongtan did not obviously break her promise or seriously violate moral standards in the "Call Gate" incident, she will be able to resume her post as Prime Minister and re-exercise her powers suspended since July.
At that time, the cabinet will continue to perform its duties, the parliament and the government will continue to function normally, without the need to re-elect the prime minister, and the political situation will remain relatively stable.
The second possibility is that the Constitutional Court finds guilty and removes the prime minister from office.
If a majority of judges (five or more) decide that Petun Tan is guilty, she will be removed from the prime minister's office and the entire cabinet will resign. At this time, the House of Representatives will have to convene to elect a new prime minister from among the remaining candidates, including the Thai Party's Guess Casson, the Oppositionist Party of Thai Pride Anutin, the Unity Thai Party's Pilapan and the Democratic Party's Julin.
Although the Thai Party remains the largest party in the ruling coalition, support rates have continued to decline due to problems such as weak economic revitalization, slow key policy advances and the border conflict in Thailand. If the prime minister is re-elected, it may trigger the ruling coalition reorganization.
A third possibility is that Peterson may resign early.
If Petongtan voluntarily resigns as Prime Minister before the judgment of the Constitutional Court, the case will not need to continue hearing. Although this also means that the cabinet as a whole will step down, she can avoid being convicted like former Prime Minister Saita, thus retaining political room for manoeuvre. After that, the parliament still needs to re-elect the prime minister.
However, this choice is extremely delicate. Only when Petontan is almost convinced that the verdict will be against him can he resign early to protect himself. If Petontan insists on staying in office, it may mean that she has received a positive signal that she has a better chance of avoiding conviction.
The fourth possibility is for the acting prime minister to dissolve parliament early.
According to the constitution, Putan, as acting prime minister, has the power to dissolve parliament. Once the dissolution is announced, Thailand needs to hold a new round of general elections within 45 to 60 days.
However, analysis believes that the possibility of this happening is very low. Because the current government and prime minister candidates are still dominated by the Phei Thai Party, and the party's public support is not good. The hasty dissolution of the parliament at this time is likely to backfire. It will not only weaken the Pheu Thai Party's own position, but may also give the opposition party an opportunity to take advantage of it.
Awaiting sentencing
Petontan is 39 years old. His suspected unconstitutional case began more than two months ago.
In mid-June, a recording of her phone call with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen about the situation on the Thai-Cambodian border was leaked, causing a public uproar. In the recording, Petuntan called Hun Sen "uncle" and criticized the words and actions of Thai military personnel.
Thirty-six senators in Thailand subsequently jointly accused her of lack of integrity, serious violations of the constitution and moral norms, and filed with the Constitutional Court for her resignation from the post of prime minister.
According to the arrangement, the Constitutional Court is scheduled to hold a collegiate deliberation and vote on the morning of the 29th, and read the judgment on whether Petuntan is unconstitutional at 3 pm that day.
At 2 p.m. on the same day, Petonthan is scheduled to go to the Prime Minister’s Office to wait for the results. At that time, several ministers will accompany him to show his support. After the verdict is announced, Petonthan will hold a press conference and deliver a speech, followed by a trip to the Thai Party headquarters.
The deputy secretary-general of the Thai prime minister, Somgil, stressed that regardless of the outcome of the ruling, it will not affect the unity of the ruling coalition.
“A political case?”
At present, the public opinion in Thailand differs about the Constitutional Court's ruling, and overall, the probability that Peyton-Tham "is in danger" and "has lost the power" is almost half each.
Recalling last August, the Constitutional Court ruled by a 5-4 vote that Thailand’s former prime minister, Sayata, was unconstitutional in his reorganization nomination and immediately resigned from office.
If she is convicted, she will not only be the fifth Prime Minister of Thailand to be removed from office since 2008, but also the third Prime Minister of the family to be removed after her father, Shin, and aunt Hira.
The outside world believes that behind the ruling of the Constitutional Court, it reflects the deeper power wrestling in Thai politics. For a long time, the Constitutional Court has been regarded as representing the interests of conservative forces such as the royal family and the military, and these forces have been competing with reformers represented by Thaksin's camp in the past few decades.
However, the relationship between the two sides has eased in recent years.He wrote that ending the exile and returning to Thailand in 2023 is seen as a symbolic event of mutual compromise.
There are Thai scholars who say that the ultimate course of the case may not depend on the law itself, but more on political factors. In a sense, it is always a political case. If Pete Thunberg could risk too much, it would also mean that the conservatives still believe that he believes in Thailand's politics "is still worthwhile."