Less than a week before the 9.3 military parade, Trump suddenly applied to visit China? Japan's abacus completely failed.
Less than a week left before the military parade commemorating the victory of China's September 3 Anti-Japanese War, US President Trump suddenly applied to visit China. The news quickly attracted the attention of the international community and put Japan, the United States 'Asian ally, in an awkward position. Just a few days ago, Japan also called on other countries not to visit China to participate in the military parade, trying to win allies to put pressure on China. However, Trump's sudden turn not only ruined Japan's diplomatic efforts, but also caused the outside world to re-examine the deep game behind Sino-US relations. Why did Trump choose to apply to visit China at this time? Why did China quickly dispatch a special plane from the Ministry of Commerce? How should Japan respond to this change in the situation?
Trump's application to visit China is no accident, but a continuation of the Sino-US economic game. Since the outbreak of the trade war in 2018, rare earth resources have become the most strategic bargaining chip in China's hands. China has 85% of the world's rare earth processing capacity, and its exports account for 70% of the global market. Rare earths are widely used in fields such as aerospace, military equipment and chip manufacturing, and are crucial to the U.S. high-tech industry. Although the United States has launched a rare earth supply chain localization plan, 2024 data show that the United States is still as dependent on Chinese rare earths as high as 83%. Trump once threatened to counter China's "cut-off" of rare earths with a 200% tariff, but this threat is more symbolic. This application to visit China is likely to seek the stability of rare earth supply and avoid a devastating blow to the U.S. industrial chain.
In addition to economic factors, Mr. Trump's request for a visit to China also reflects domestic political pressures. The prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine, high inflation and rising debt problems have made Trump urgently need a diplomatic breakthrough. By voluntarily applying to visit China, he tried to project the image of a "master dealmaker" and add points to domestic politics. The move also sent a signal to the international community that the United States is willing to resolve differences with China through dialogue.
Faced with Trump's application, China responded quickly. A spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China said that the heads of state of China and the United States maintain close communication, sending a signal that Sino-US relations are stable. At the same time, China's Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang finalized his arrival in Washington this week to launch a new round of trade talks with the United States. This two-line layout is not only a clever operation of scene diplomacy, but also lays the foundation for future substantive cooperation. By appropriately releasing cooperation signals, China has demonstrated its strategic initiative in the Sino-US game.
In comparison, the situation in Japan appears to be embarrassing. Previously, the Japanese government called on countries not to visit China for military parades and to try to stand up to the United States in the Sino-U.S. game. However, Trump's sudden turn made Japan's diplomatic efforts seem to be futile. The frequent interaction between the Sino-U.S. and Japan has not only disrupted Japan's pace, but also made it isolated on the international stage. Japan is now facing two difficult choices: on the one hand, it needs to maintain its allies with the United States and avoid being marginalized by the improvement of Sino-U.S. relations; on the other hand, it must reconsider its policy to China and avoid falling into passivity in the Sino-U.S. game.
Trump’s application to visit China has injected new momentum into China-US relations, but the two sides’ game is far from over. Rare-earth supply, tariff warfare, technology disconnection and other issues remain the core issues in China-US relations. At the same time, the improvement of China-US relations will also have a profound impact on the global geopolitical pattern. For Japan, South Korea and EU countries, changes in China-US relations mean they have to reorient their strategic position. In the future, how will China-US relations develop? Can Japan find a new diplomatic breakthrough?