The Bear Observer Network.

Some have begun to link the two sets of bilateral relationships over the past period to a change in the relationship between India and the United States - the sudden sharp decline in the relationship between India and the United States, and the gradual warming of the relationship between India and China.

According to a report by Indian media "news18" on August 23 local time, Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar Jaishankar, when attending a forum organized by India's "Economic Times" that day, refuted speculation that the recent Sino-Indian diplomatic contacts were driven by US trade actions (including US President Trump's tariff policy). He particularly emphasized that it is a "wrong analysis" to regard Sino-Indian relations as a direct response to the development of US relations.

¡°I hope you understand that the relationship between India and China is not black and white, it¡¯s not about what happened to the United States, what happened to China immediately... There are different timelines for different issues and different time spans,¡± he said.

Su Jiesheng emphasized that India-China relations are part of a long-term evolution trajectory and cannot be reduced to a one-time response to a specific global event.

"I think it's a wrong analysis to try to mix all the factors together and then respond comprehensively to a very specific situation. Of course, the global situation is changing today, and I hope you understand that the relationship between the two countries is evolving and this relationship is flowing. Of course, there are other relationships, but don't take this connection too closely. This is not the case." Su Jiesheng said.

Minister of Foreign Affairs of India Sujetin

Earlier, after the failure of five rounds of U.S.-India trade talks and India's refusal to cut last year's record $52 billion in Russian oil imports, Trump offered a 50% high tariff and triggered an escalation in the tariff war. Reuters quoted U.S.-India officials as saying that factors such as political misjudgment, signal failure and mutual complaint led to the breakdown of trade agreements between the world's largest economy and the fifth largest economy.

Analysts pointed out that Trump's move marks the "most serious decline" in U.S. -Indian relations since he returned to the White House in January. The tariffs could disrupt India's access to its largest export market and will impact industries such as textiles, footwear, gemstones and jewelry-India's total exports to the United States in 2024 will be close to $87 billion.

According to reports, at this forum event on August 23 local time, Sujesen once again responded with tough words to the United States 'imposition of tariffs on Indian goods. He said that trade negotiations between India and the United States are still continuing, but there are clear "red lines" in the negotiations, and India will always make decisions based on national interests.

Stressing that the interests of farmers and small producers were the bottom line in the negotiations, Mr. Jaishankar said: "We are committed to defending the interests of our farmers and small producers. We are very firm about this. This is not something we can compromise on." The Economic Times said that Mr. Jaishankar's remarks showed India's determination to safeguard its domestic interests while engaging with global partners.

At the same time, Sujesen once again criticized the tariff as "unfair and unreasonable" on the spot, saying that it was mistakenly "packaged as an oil issue" because the same argument was not used in Europe, Russia's largest importer of liquefied natural gas.

He pointed out that the West's position on this issue is "inconsistent". In terms of trade scale, the scale of Russia-EU trade far exceeds that of India and Russia. "Some people say that we are financing the conflict between Russia and Ukraine... The scale of Russia-EU trade is larger, isn't it that Europe invests more?"

Jaishankar also sarcastically said: "It's interesting that a U.S. government that claims to be pro-business accuses others of doing business. If you think there is something wrong with buying our oil or refined oil, then don't buy it. No one forces you to buy it. But Europe buys it, and the United States buys it. So if you don't like it, don't buy it from us."

Also this month, China-India relations, which fell to a trough due to border conflicts five years ago, showed signs of warming up.

China and India, the two Asian neighbors, have been in conflict due to border issues in 2020, and since then relations have been tense, the two countries have been trying to stabilize bilateral relations. Recently, India has resumed issuing tourist visas to Chinese citizens, China has eased urine export restrictions to India. In addition, five years of silent China-India direct flights due to the new coronavirus are expected to resume the dawn, the Indian media said that China and India will resume direct flights as soon as September, and the Indian government has asked its airlines to be ready to resume China routes at any time.

According to the report, at present, there is still room for further advancement in the initial thawing of Sino-Indian relations. On August 6th, local time, just as Trump announced that he would increase the tariff imposed on India to 50%, a number of Indian media quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that Modi planned to visit Tianjin, China from August 31st to September 1st to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit held there. This will also be his first visit to China since 2018.

Modi's participation in the Tianjin Summit also created the possibility for the meeting of leaders of the two countries, and the topics that may be discussed in the potential meeting involve further normalization of relations, including easing tensions in border areas, the resumption of direct flights, the reopening of border trade points and strengthening personnel exchanges.

In response, China Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said that China welcomes Prime Minister Modi to come to China to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit. It is believed that with the joint efforts of all parties, the Tianjin Summit will become a grand event of unity, friendship and fruitful results, and the SCO will enter a new stage of high-quality development that is more united, more collaborative, more dynamic and more effective.

On August 18 local time, Wang Yi held talks with Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar

During this period, foreign media have generally linked Modi's visit to China with the changes in U.S. -India relations in their reports.

In this regard, the researcher and deputy dean of the Institute for International Issues of the University of Fudan, Lin Mingwang, told the Observer Network that Modi's visit to China was a relatively positive signal for the development of the SCO and the improvement of China-India relations. but the United States to interpret this visit to China seems not very accurate, because the schedule has long been determined, not because Trump announced that the temporary decision to increase taxes on India will come.

Recently, China-India has frequent high-level interactions in the fields of defense, security and foreign affairs, and China-India relations have shown a warming up space and momentum.In July, India's Foreign Minister Suzhou Shenzhen attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's foreign ministers' meeting and visited China.This was his first visit to China since 2020;In June, India's national security adviser Agit Dover and India's defense minister Rajnat Singh visited China.

It is worth noting that just as India-US relations are experiencing a rapid decline, Nikki Haley, a famous Indian-American politician in U.S. politics, former Permanent Representative of the United States to the United Nations and former Governor of South Carolina, has recently begun to publish frequently. He even talked about China uneasily and kindly.

According to the Times of India, just as Haley recently faced criticism from the Republican Party for her obvious bias to India in the trade dispute, she posted on the social media X platform on August 23rd, local time, shifting her focus to shouting to India. "India must take Trump's views on Russian oil seriously and work with the White House to find a solution. The sooner the better."

Haley then went on to declare: "Resolving trade disagreements and issues like Russian oil imports will require difficult conversations. But we should not lose sight of the most important thing: our shared goals. To deal with China, the United States must be friends with India." Indeed, the day before (August 22), she had also posted: "It should be natural for the United States and India to join forces against China, and it is in the interests of the United States to help India confront China."

On August 18, local time, the CPC Central Committee Political Bureau member and Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a meeting in New Delhi with India's Foreign Minister Suzhou, India's media high attention. India's New Delhi TV (NDTV) local time on August 19, described the visit as a "milestone" in China and India's two Asian great powers to adjust relations in response to the global chaos caused by the Trump tariff war, its report title stressed that - in the Trump tariff war, China pointed out to India: "Unilateral bullying is a good thing to do."

Wang Yi told Su Jiesheng that in today's world, a century of changes are accelerating, unilateral bullying is prevalent, and free trade and the international order are facing severe challenges." As the two largest developing countries with a total population of more than 2.8 billion, China and India should show their feelings for the world, reflect their responsibility as major countries, set an example for the majority of developing countries to unite and self-reliance, and contribute to promoting world multipolarity and democratization of international relations.

Extended reading

Five years ago, when border conflicts broke out between China and India, relations between the two countries fell to a low point; recently, relations between China and India have shown signs of warming up. On August 18, local time, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, held talks with Indian Foreign Minister Sujarsen in New Delhi. Indian media is highly concerned about this.

Recently, the relationship between China and India has shown signs of warming up. The picture shows the flags of China and India

India's New Delhi Television (NDTV) reported on August 19th, local time, that this visit was a "milestone" for China and India, two Asian powers, to adjust their relations to cope with the global chaos caused by Trump's tariff war. The title of its report emphasized this-In Trump's tariff war, China pointed out to India that "unilateral bullying is popular".

In a statement issued after the meeting of the two foreign ministers, the Chinese side said that Wang Yi told Suzhou that "the world today, with centuries of change accelerating, unilateral bullying is going well, free trade and international order are facing serious challenges", which clearly refers to pressure from the United States.

Wang Yi said that China and India, as the two largest developing countries with a total population of more than 2.8 billion, should show their feelings in the world, reflect their responsibilities as big countries, set an example for the overwhelming number of developing countries to unite and improve themselves, and contribute to promoting world multipolarization and democratization of international relations.

NDTV quoted sources as saying that China has pledged to address India¡¯s three key concerns ¨C fertilizer, rare earth and tunnel drillers ¨C among which, rare earth elements are critical to the manufacture of high-tech products such as smartphones and advanced military equipment, mainly concentrating refining production in China, which makes them strategic for global technology.

The Hindustan Times also reported that through this visit, China and India have achieved positive bilateral results. As relations between the two countries normalize, China will resume supplying India's urgently needed fertilizers, rare earth minerals and tunnel boring machines. In addition, Jaishankar emphasized that India's position on the Taiwan issue has not changed.

Indian media have repeatedly linked the background of the thaw in Sino-Indian relations to the tariff offensive launched by the United States against India's continued purchase of Russian oil.

The Indian Times that despite the atmosphere of China and India's foreign ministers' talks, U.S. President Donald Trump became the focus of the talks.The two sides agreed that given the current U.S. policy direction, the two sides need to work closer together, and the general consensus is that U.S. policies and decisions will be aimed at both China and India, and both sides need dialogue to overcome uncertainty.

During his visit to China last month, Sujetson consulted with Wang Yi on the supply of urine, nitrogen phosphorus composite fertilizer, phosphate dioxide, rare-earth minerals and tunnel drillers, but he did not mention border negotiations and border issues at the time.

A spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China has previously announced that from 18 to 20 August, members of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, foreign ministers and the Chinese Special Representative on China-India Border will be invited to visit India and hold the 24th meeting of the Special Representative on China-India Border.

According to the "Indian Express" report, on August 19 local time, Wang Yi will hold the 24th meeting of the Special Representative for China-India Border Issues with Indian National Security Adviser Doval and meet with Indian Prime Minister Modi.

Bloomberg on August 17 that China and India, the two Asian neighbors, had been in conflict in 2020 due to border issues, since then the relationship has been tense, and the two countries have been trying to stabilize bilateral relations. Recently, India has resumed issuing tourist visas to Chinese citizens, China has eased urine export restrictions to India. In addition, due to the new coronavirus and other reasons, China's five-year direct flights are expected to resume the dawn, the Indian media said that China and India will soon resume direct flights in September, and the Indian government has asked its airlines to be ready to resume China's routes at any time.

According to the report, at present, there is still room for further advancement in the initial thawing of Sino-Indian relations. On August 6th, local time, just as Trump announced that he would increase the tariff imposed on India to 50%, a number of Indian media quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that Modi planned to visit Tianjin, China from August 31st to September 1st to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit held there. This will also be his first visit to China since 2018.

Modi's participation in the Tianjin Summit also created the possibility for the meeting of leaders of the two countries, and the topics that may be discussed in the potential meeting involve further normalization of relations, including easing tensions in border areas, the resumption of direct flights, the reopening of border trade points and strengthening personnel exchanges.

In response, China Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said that China welcomes Prime Minister Modi to come to China to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit. It is believed that with the joint efforts of all parties, the Tianjin Summit will become a grand event of unity, friendship and fruitful results, and the SCO will enter a new stage of high-quality development that is more united, more collaborative, more dynamic and more effective.

Reuters pointed out that after five rounds of trade negotiations between the United States and India failed to reach an agreement and India refused to cut last year's record US $52 billion in Russian oil imports, Trump offered a 50% high tariff, which triggered the escalation of the tariff war. Officials in the United States and India believe that factors such as political misjudgment, missed signals and mutual resentment have all led to the breakdown of trade agreement negotiations between the world's largest economy and the fifth largest economy.

Analysts pointed out that Trump's move marks the "most serious decline" in U.S. -Indian relations since he returned to the White House in January. The tariffs could disrupt India's access to its largest export market and will impact industries such as textiles, footwear, gemstones and jewelry-India's total exports to the United States in 2024 will be close to $87 billion.

NDTV noted that despite India being punished for buying Russian oil, the United States has not yet imposed any so-called ¡°secondary sanctions¡± on China.

In response, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio told Fox News on August 17 local time that if Russia sells oil to China, it will find that most of the Russian crude oil purchased by China has been refined and sold back to the global market.

On August 17, local time, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio received an interview with U.S. Fox News Network.

According to the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi said at the meeting with Suzhou that the leaders of the two countries met successfully in Kazan and led China-India relations to resume and start again. The two sides seriously implemented the consensus reached by the leaders of the two countries, dialogue at all levels was gradually restored, peace and tranquillity in the border region wasined, the Indian Singh resumed the pilgrimage of Tibet, the Holy Lake, China-India relations showed a positive trend of return to the main route of cooperation. This year is the 75th anniversary of the establishment of China-India relations. The two sides should earnestly learn from 75 years of experience, establish the correct strategic perception, see each other as a partner and opportunity, not as an opponent or

Wang Yi stressed that China is willing to adhere to the philosophy of sincerity and favor, shared destiny, and work with neighboring countries, including India, to jointly build peace, tranquility, prosperity, beauty and friendship in the "five great gardens". China and India and China should firmly confide, go towards each other, eliminate interference, expand cooperation, consolidate the momentum of improving relations between China and India, so that the revitalization process of the two major Eastern civilizations mutually promote and accomplish each other, and provide the most needed certainty and stability for Asia and the world.

Sujasin said that under the joint guidance of the two leaders, India-China relations have come out of the low valley, continuously improving development, and the exchanges and cooperation between the two sides in various fields have been normalized.Thanks to China for facilitating the Indian pilgrimage to Tibet, Shikoku Shikoku pilgrimage in China.India is very important to improve the strategic awareness of each other.As the two largest developing countries, India-China adheres to multilateralism, strives to promote fair and balanced world multilateralism, should also jointly safeguard the stability of the world economy.Indiains relationship stability, cooperation and forward-looking, in line with the interests of the two countries.It is part of Taiwan China.India is willing