During the recent heated trade dispute, Indian Prime Minister Modi refused to listen to U.S. President Trump¡¯s phone calls four times in a row in recent weeks, and U.S.-India relations rapidly deteriorated, despite the two sides repeatedly claiming it was ¡°the most important bilateral relationship of the 21st century.¡±

Modi's meeting with Trump

High tariffs on India

Experts: U.S. has more negotiating advantage

According to a previous statement by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, the 50% tariff rate imposed by the United States on India will take effect on August 27. Previously, Trump once ridiculously called India a "dead economy." Indian financial media analyzed that this will be one of the most serious trade shocks facing New Delhi.

Lin Mingwang, professor and deputy dean of the Institute of International Studies at the University of Phuket, told Red Star reporters that India's economic resilience and downturn are clearly not one of China's dimensions, India also has certain industrial highlights (such as replicating drugs, jewelry, mobile phones, etc.), but the alternative is strong, and there are few cards to be played in the negotiations with the United States.

Indian government sources said Modi¡¯s rejection of Trump¡¯s phone calls was both ¡°deep anger¡± and ¡°precautionary consideration¡± because Modi didn¡¯t like to get misunderstood in the call, rather than wanting to communicate in front of him. Modi¡¯s rejection of the phonely made Trump feel ¡°very frustrated.¡± At present, the Indian government and the White House have not publicly responded to the matter.

Modi stressed at a rally on August 25th that he would never sacrifice the interests of farmers in trade disputes. No matter how great the pressure is, India will eventually resist external pressure by strengthening its own economic strength. (Previously reported: The United States is about to impose a 50% tariff on India. Modi is hard: I won't sacrifice the interests of farmers, this is Gandhi's land)

John Bolton, a former US national security adviser, argues: "The longer India is left on the sidelines, the worse the relationship will get because India will feel targeted."

In an interview with Red Star News, Professor Lin Minwang said that India has a large trade surplus with the United States and a high degree of dependence on the United States, so it is highly likely that India will make some substantive concessions because the United States has more negotiating advantages.

Modi shakes hands with Trump

"Made in India" plan has been promoted for more than ten years

Manufacturing is not reversed.

According to U.S. government statistics, by 2024, the United States would import about $129 billion of goods from India, while exports to India would be about $83.4 billion, resulting in a U.S. trade deficit (i.e. India¡¯s surplus) of about $456 billion.

According to analysis, about two-thirds of India's exports to the United States are subject to a punitive tariff of 50%, and only resource products such as steel and aluminum are subject to a basic tariff of 25%.

However, considering factors such as transportation costs, India's non-ferrous metals and other industries do not have a competitive advantage. India's "bulk" exports to the United States mainly include labor-intensive industries such as textiles, clothing, gemstones and jewelry, seafood products and leather. It has narrow profit margins and is very sensitive to tariff rates.

Professor Lingvin Wang believes that in the face of competition from Pakistan, Bangladesh, Mexico, Vietnam and other countries, India's industrial advantage will cease to exist in the face of high tariffs.

In addition, the United States is one of India's main export markets, but for American buyers, Indian products are highly substitutable. For example, Professor Lin Minwang said that, for example, India's generic drugs also have certain competitive advantages in the US market, "but its main advantages are still reflected in the third world such as Africa." Many gemstones processed in India are also exported to the United States, but the impact of these industries is not great after all.

In addition, Modi has called on citizens to buy locally made products in several speeches this month, and claimed that his "Make in India" plan has made great breakthroughs. In this regard, Professor Lin said that although "Make in India" has made progress at some points and certain levels in recent years, such as in the assembly and manufacturing of smartphones, from a macro perspective, "the internal and external difficulties faced by the development of India's manufacturing industry are actually very large. There are structural reasons for this. It is not easy for the Indian economy to achieve transformation."

Professor Lin also pointed out that although Modi has been promoting the "Make in India" plan for more than ten years, the proportion of manufacturing in the Indian economy has declined instead of rising. According to Indian government economic survey data, India's manufacturing industry accounted for approximately 17.3% of total GDP in 2013, and will drop to 14.3% by 2023. Some analysts believe that the development of India's manufacturing industry is facing difficulties such as backward infrastructure, insufficient investment, and many institutional constraints, and it is also facing increasingly fierce external competition in the international industrial chain structure.

The analysis says:

High tariffs may force India to accelerate its emergence as the "world's factory"

Agai Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), warned that exports from some of India¡¯s affected industries could fall by 70 percent and related exports could fall from $6.2 billion to $18.6 billion. India¡¯s total exports to the United States could fall by 43 percent, which would put hundreds of thousands of jobs in India at risk. Srivastava said: ¡°The impact of this trade shock is significant for India¡¯s export-oriented economy, which is a test for industry resilience and diplomatic power.¡±

The government is also trying to hedge against economists' widespread estimate that the impact of the tariff war could reduce India's GDP growth by 0.4-0 per cent in fiscal 2026, affecting private investment, labour markets and manufacturing. Exporters affected by the tariffs would receive financial subsidies to help them expand into markets such as Asia, Latin America and the Middle East, according to a commerce ministry official who spoke on condition of anonymity. "The government has identified nearly 50 countries to increase India's exports, especially textiles, processed food products, leather goods and seafood," the official said.

Many Indian media believe that the tariff war launched by the United States may be a catalyst for India to accelerate to become a "world factory", India should seize the time to change the pattern of the former export trade is overly dependent on the United States. There are reports, for example, that India's processed gemstones in the Middle East (such as the UAE and other countries) will have more customers, India's imitation drug accounts for 40% of the global share, Europe, Africa, Latin America and other markets can take up demand. In addition, in the clothing textile industry, although India has no advantage over the cost of manufacturing to Bangladesh and other countries, but in terms of quality, there is also an analysis that India's seafood (especially shrimp) has been exported to the United States, and under the new tariff situation,

related news

Bull: Angry Modi doesn't answer the phone after Trump publicly calls "humiliation"

How passionate the feelings used to be, how strong the anger is now.

Trump and Modi meet to hug.

Trump and Modi, the two previously met, must be tightly embraced, now the two not only do not meet, not even phone calls, Trump more rarely name insults Modi.

Not that we don¡¯t understand that the world is changing too fast.

According to German media reports, Trump tried to call Modi four times recently, but Modi refused.

Please note: four times.

The Chinese say "nothing but three", but the Indians say I hate three the most, and four times is not enough. Trump, you continue to be shut out.

Why is ?

Modi was angry.

In the words of German media, Modi's outright refusal was motivated by both "deep anger" and "prudent considerations."

In Modi's opinion, Trump stabbed him in the back, which was too inauthentic.

Anyway, in public, Modi likes Trump very much and once publicly stood for Trump. In the words of Indians, "Modi always hugs Trump like a long-lost brother."

But what will Trump do to India?

Trump wants to earn money from India, and the 25% tariff is not negotiable. He also imposes another 25% tariff on the grounds that India buys Russian oil.

As a result, Indian goods exported to the United States at an unprecedented rate of 50%, which was officially implemented on August 27.

The highest in the world, alongside Brazil.

The Indians thought that they were my close friend, Lord America, and finally discovered that India was the old-fashioned opponent of America.

That¡¯s not enough, Trump has also criticized India as a ¡°dead economy.¡±

Indians are being scolded for being the fastest growing major economy in the world every time, and you call us a "death economy"?

India is a big country after all, and Modi also has a strong personality. So, Trump's phone call was not answered.

Trump calls again, Modi will not answer again.

Image for Trump (left) and Modi (data map / foreign media)

I would have heart to the moon, but the moon shines ditch!

And, a few days earlier, Modi also publicly stated, ¡°I will tell our small businessmen, our shopkeepers brothers and sisters, our farmers brothers and sisters, our livestock brothers and sisters ... Whether it be our small businessmen, farmers or farmers, for everyone, I assure you that your interests are the most important.¡±

He stressed that the Indian government will never allow small entrepreneurs, farmers and farmers to be harmed, "no matter how great the pressure, we will continue to build up our strength to withstand the challenge."

Moreover, India also stated that I will continue to buy Russian oil.

Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar said: "It's ironic that an American government that flaunts to be pro-business accuses others of doing business. If you don't like Indian oil or refined oil, don't buy it. No one forced you. But Europe bought it, and so did the United States."

What do you mean?

The big stick of the United States has met the hard bone of India.

The temper of the Indians has also risen, and we will not kneel.

But is Trump a good man?

Recently, when it comes to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Trump has flaunted his "achievements" in mediating the India-Pakistan conflict, and also disclosed a detail.

He said: "I talked to Modi (at that time) and threatened him to stop the trade agreement within 24 hours if he didn't stop the war. But it only took him five hours to stop."

You can't believe Trump's voice and emotion.

Trump has previously claimed that he prevented a nuclear war between India and Pakistan. This was flatly denied by India, which believes that the truce between India and Pakistan has nothing to do with Trump and is the initiative of Pakistan to seek peace.

Trump, you are eating Indian tofu!

But Trump did not give up, always talking about mediating peace between India and Pakistan, and now he has gone even further, publicly naming Modi, saying that Modi has implemented faster than he asked.

This is not publicly humiliating Modi and what?

I saw that many Indian bloggers exclaimed, this is a "breaking news", Modi, you are too weak.

Trump and Modi are ¡°true friendship¡± comics.

Oh, and Trump used to say that in the India-Pakistan war, five fighter planes were shot down; Now it's been upgraded again and says there are 7.

0:5 is a question on the Internet about the conflict between India and Pakistan. It can be said to be India's biggest embarrassment this year.

Because the whole world is inclined to Pakistan's statement, China fighter jets were used to shoot down five Indian fighter jets.

Trump is also the first leader in the world to publicly mention five fighter planes.

I saw that after Trump spoke, India¡¯s opposition leader, Rahul Gandhi, immediately handed over Trump¡¯s video, asking, ¡°Modi, what is the truth about the 5 aircraft?

Finally, India failed to make it to the Air Force Chief of Staff to "clarify": it was India that shot down five Pakistani fighter jets.

The whole world is dumbfounded. Can you still do this in India?

Good news, how did you endure three months without announcing it?

But now, Trump has said 7 more, and that's how he slapped his face directly. What do you do about India?

It must be said that in the field of diplomacy, dignity is never given to others, but is won by oneself.

Finally, what do you think?

Let's say three superficial points.

First, India should have woken up long ago.

This has been said repeatedly before.

Because there are Westerners lamenting that Trump is undermining 20 years of US diplomacy with India, pushing India towards Russia and China.

What to regret!

In fact, over the past 20 years, India has come together, and the fantasy of becoming an ally of the West is both a dream and more than a dream.

India is not Japan, after all, can the West not tolerate a rising China, but can it tolerate a rising individual India?

If India needs China, India is a code; if India does not need India, India is a broken shoe.

If the shoes are broken, sooner or later they will be discarded.

Trump just kicked the broken shoe into the trash in the most direct and most insulting way.

Second, see Trump win and learn PK Modi win and learn.

After all, these two distinct personalities leaders have all been known for winning.

In many international struggles, they always claim that they have won, and they have won all of them.

Now well, the two old wicked men, short soldiers together, directly acted.

Oh, really thin, people's feelings are evil, the rain sends yellow dawn and falls easily. "When I used to go with people to see the moon, they called me sweet, now the new people have changed the old people, they called me cow lady."

On the power field, yesterday intimacy, today face ungrateful, but normal.

That¡¯s Trump¡¯s fist hard, or Modi¡¯s wrist hard, and we¡¯ll ride the donkey and watch the song¡ªgo and see.

Third, it is not excluded that there is a sudden reversal.

I always feel that we must have a clear understanding of this.

I was striking you to die and live, and suddenly the two looked right in the eye and joyfully entered the cave.Al it was dramatic, but the wrongdoer was the wrongdoer, what could not happen?

After all, the only certainty we know in this world is Trump's uncertainty.

After all, although Trump publicly insulted Modi and Modi refused to answer the phone four times, Modi has never publicly named Trump by name.

People stay on the line and see you later.

Moreover, there are various indications that, despite the tough talk of continuing to buy Russian oil, some Indian oil companies are also quietly reducing their imports.

Modi still maintains some illusions; Trump is more about maximum pressure on India.

Only, even Trump's hard kick, eventually turned into a small puff, but the humiliation of the Indian heart, estimated for a long time can not be eliminated.

After all, without comparison, there is no harm.

Trump hits the face when he says he hits the face, but did China, even when it had the worst relationship with India, say such things to insult India and Modi?

Real strength never lies in being hoarse, but in being calm.

Really, India is blessed to have a neighbor like China with a consistent policy of emotional stability.

India is not happy.

Where to go, Modi needs to get more clear.