As soon as the three restart points for China-India border trade were finalized, Nepal jumped out and said "No." Why on earth? What impact will it have on the next cooperation between China and India and the regional situation?
As is well known, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited India yesterday and reached a number of consensus results with the Modi government, including the resumption of Chinese border trade through Ripley Mountains in northern Arkansas, Shbucira Mountains in the Himalayas and Nanking Mountains in Sikkim.
But nobody thought that Nepal would jump out as a “stop-through tiger.”
What Nepal means is that the Riplek Pass is their territory, and China and India are doing business here, which is a red line for Nepal.
However, this statement was directly rejected by Indian Prime Minister Modi.
The Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a message saying that it rejected Nepal's opposition to resuming border trade with China through the Riplek Pass.
The Indian side stressed that China-India border trade through the Ripley Mountains began in 1954 and has been ongoing for decades.
This means that Nepal is not qualified to interrupt.
Nepal hasn't opposed late, not opposed, but stands up at this time, what's the point?Modi dares to be so hard-hearted, is it calculated that Nepal has no temper, or there is another temper?
If this matter continues, will it be a small episode or a big trouble for the economic cooperation around the Himalayas?
Let’s first look at the size of Ripley Mountains.
This place is said to be “the throat” is not a bit exaggerated. From the map, it connects China’s Tibetan Ali region, followed by India’s northern state of Akanda, not far south is the far western region of Nepal.
If this place were open, the cost of transporting goods across the border could be reduced by more than 30%. Xizang's mineral products and Indian wool products would no longer have to take a long detour to the port and pass directly through the mountain, and ordinary people could earn a lot more.
In 2019, the Sino-Indian border trade was at its hottest. The transaction volume of these mountain passes alone accounted for 15% of the total border trade between the two countries. Later, due to the epidemic and border friction, it dropped by almost 40% at once, and many merchants who stayed on the sidelines could hardly support it.
So the news of this restart came out, and the business community on both sides was looking forward to an early recovery. But the opposition from Nepal added uncertainty to the game.
The Nigerian government believes that the Ripple mountain is theirs, and the Chinese Indians have taken this place into a trade point without a greeting, which is "ignoring Nepal's sovereignty."
Then why did Modi dare to directly dismiss it?
On the surface, the Indian side thinks it is "reasonable", but in the final analysis, it is still a geopolitical calculation.
India has always regarded Nepal as its "backyard". In recent years, through aid and investment, Nepal's economic lifeline has been pinched to death.
If we give in on the matter of Riplek Pass, not only the domestic opposition party will scold it as "humiliating the country", but also the neighboring Bhutan and Bangladesh will see it, and India's regional influence will have to be reduced.
More importantly, Modi wants to use this to "find a balance" in China-India relations, restarting trade with China to show a "détente stance" while being tough on Nepal, proving that "India is not easy to mess with."
Modi has used this "fighting and pulling" routine many times. For example, two years ago, while exchanging fire with Pakistan, he held a meeting with China in Wuhan.
Economic accounting is also inevitable.
Wool and herbs from Uttarakhand, India, have been waiting to be sold to China.
If Ripple Mountains cannot be opened, these things will have to go around the port of Bangladesh, the cost will be doubled without saying, and you will have to look at the face of others.
But Nepal has already issued a statement to send the declaration of sovereignty to the United Nations, and also intends to address this issue at the summit of United Bhutan and Bangladesh in South Asia.
What's even more troublesome is that the cooperation between Nepal and China is accelerating. An agreement was just signed in 2024 to build a railway from Shigatse, Tibet to Kathmandu, Nepal. In the future, Nepalese goods will be able to enter China directly without going through India.
This is tantamount to posing a difficult problem for China. While it is necessary to implement trade with India, it must not hurt Nepal's feelings.
In depth, the case exposes a deadline in the Himalayan region, where geopolitics is always disturbing economic cooperation.
China and India want to rely on trade to "cool" relations, but they have hit a territorial pit left over from history; Nepal wants to protect its sovereignty, but it has to walk a tightrope between the two powers.
If the three parties couldn't find a way to compromise, the Riplek Pass might become a new "powder keg", let alone a "golden passage".
In fact, there is no way to break up.
For example, first put aside sovereignty disputes, engage in "joint management", the three parties together set trade rules, tariffs and customs procedures are transparent, and the profits are divided proportionally. or, like China and Bhutan, first talk about a "transitional agreement", make trade first, slowly talk about sovereignty.
But it requires sincerity. India wants to put down its shelf of "regional boss", Nepal also needs to give some buffer space, and China can act as a "middleman" to pull the thread.
After all, the snow on the Himalayas can water the ground, hundreds of years of dispute, can never freeze forever.
After all, business is done, everyone has money to earn; if it is stiff, no one can hate it well.