[Global Times Comprehensive Report] The 50% tariff imposed by the United States on Indian products exported to the United States came into effect on the 27th. According to Bloomberg, this is the highest tariff imposed by the United States on all Asian countries in order to punish India for buying Russian oil, a move that subverts decades of efforts by the United States to build closer relations with India. International public opinion generally believes that high tariffs have aggravated the tension between the United States and India. Germany's frankfurter allgemeine zeitung recently reported that US President Trump has tried to call Indian Prime Minister Modi at least four times in recent weeks, all of which were rejected by Modi. The newspaper believes that there are signs that Modi is dissatisfied with the high tariffs of the United States and Trump's remarks that India is a "dead economy". U.S. and Indian officials refused to confirm the news. Will the US-India relationship deteriorate? International public opinion has been talking about this. The US media warned that "losing India will be the worst result for the United States", and India criticized "American bullying". Long Xingchun, a Chinese scholar, told the Global Times reporter on the 27th that after the Trump administration took office, it paid more attention to economic development and the return of manufacturing industry, which made India's strategic value relatively decline. Despite the challenges faced in the economic and trade fields, the common interests of the United States and India in military cooperation, the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" and other fields still exist. The U.S. strategic community still attaches great importance to India's value.
Modi rejects Trump’s phone call?
"Trump called, but Modi didn't pick up the microphone." Germany's frankfurter allgemeine zeitung reported on the 26th that in February this year, the President of the United States praised Modi as a "great leader". Now, Trump has changed his tone and dismissed this proud country as a "dead economy". There are signs that Modi is dissatisfied with Trump. Trump has tried to talk to Modi four times in recent weeks, but the latter has always refused.
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung described the development as surprising. Mr. Modi's refusal to speak to Mr. Trump, who in a phone conversation with the Vietnamese leader renegotiated a trade deal carefully negotiated by the delegations of the two countries and announced on social media that a deal had been reached without a deal, showed not only his inner anger but also his caution. "Modi doesn't want to repeat the same mistakes."
Japanese media, Journal of Asia, similar news on the 24th that Trump and Modi's friendship, once proud, had recently fallen into serious conflict.Indian diplomatic experts revealed that Trump has recently tried several times to call Modi to seek a compromise, but the Indian leader has always refused to call, causing Trump to feel frustrated.
It is worth noting that none of these reports have been confirmed by both the United States and India. Trump mentioned Modi as a "great person" at the cabinet meeting on the 26th, saying that he had a phone call with Modi in May and promoting a ceasefire in India and Pakistan within five hours. This statement makes India dissatisfied.
In India, Modi chaired a cabinet meeting on the 27th. Indian media said that the meeting focused on how to deal with the impact of US tariffs. Modi himself did not make a public statement on the US tariffs that day.
The Indian Ministry of Commerce did not respond to the request for comment, according to Reuters, according to which the US tariff of 50 percent on India came into force after the failure of five rounds of negotiations between the two sides, “officials both blamed the world’s largest and fifth-largest economies for political misjudgment and lack of communication.”
The reactions of various political parties in India to U.S. tariffs vary widely. India's Asia News Agency said on the 27th that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies have said that India can deal with the lack of US tariffs. Khatana, a member of the Indian People's Party, said: "India is self-reliant and develops steadily. American pressure will not shake us. India is an emerging global power with a rapidly growing economy. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi, India has become stronger through initiatives such as 'Entrepreneurship India' and strong defense policies."
According to the report, the opposition party criticized this as Modi's diplomatic failure. Ramesh, leader of the Congress Party, said on 27th that "Trump's double tariff" will pose a major challenge to India's labor-intensive industrial exports. The party questioned that there were problems in India's foreign policy under Modi, especially towards the United States. Congress Party President Karg said that the high tariffs imposed by the United States on India are the result of Modi's "superficial" foreign policy, which will lead to a large number of people in India losing their jobs.
"The country comes first, business comes behind"
Reuters calculated an account for India on the 27th: Should India face the 50% tariff of the United States and continue to buy Russian oil, or should it succumb to Trump's wishes and reduce its oil imports from Russia to an acceptable level for the United States? According to the report, from a strictly economic point of view, it may be more reasonable to yield to Trump. Since the 50% tax rate is enough to end most trade, the economic losses caused by India's loss of the US market may be far greater than the gains brought by buying Russian oil. "But India's decision to continue buying Russian oil is likely to be motivated by political rather than economic considerations. Modi cannot be seen giving in to a bullying Trump because it will cost him political capital at home." The report argues that the US tariffs on India are "a classic example of a lose-lose situation for both countries". "For the United States, tariffs are basically a one-time bargaining chip, and once implemented and raised to a level that destroys trade relations, they lose their influence." "But for the target country, Russia, it is a victory."
According to the Indian Times, India's oil industry believes that it is technically feasible to replace Russian oil from other countries in the international market, after all, the supply of crude oil in the international market is now very sufficient.
Modi's recent movements have attracted attention. On the 25th and 26th, Modi emphasized in domestic activities that India must be self-reliant and never compromise with external pressure. From the 29th to the 30th, Modi will visit Japan; next, he will go to China to attend the SCO summit. CNN asked: Should the United States be worried about Modi's visit to China against the background of U.S. tariffs? The article stated that in addition to Modi, leaders of China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran and Central Asian countries will all attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit. Modi's presence at the summit "is by far the most powerful example of warming relations between the two Asian powers-this budding realignment could undermine years of U.S. efforts to cultivate India as a counterweight to China's power."
Two more fundamental reasons
The New York Times summarized the US-India relationship as “confused” and “chaos.” The report that the US-India relationship fell to a few months’ lowest point in decades, and nobody really understood why it all happened. The U.S. tariff rate on India is so extreme, and India’s position in U.S. strategic considerations (at least once) is so important.
There is also an analysis that the tensions between the US and India have deeper causes. The report of the Journal of Asia says that the sudden reversal of the US-India relationship cannot be explained by tariffs alone. Indian officials and diplomatic experts say that there are two more fundamental reasons for the tensions between the US and India.
The first is the growing disagreement between the two countries on how to deal with China. India is seeking to strengthen cooperation with the United States to contain China. But in New Delhi, people are increasingly disappointed because Trump’s confrontation with Beijing is much lower than many expected. India’s former national security adviser, Menon, said: “India’s biggest concern is that Trump may reach a major deal with China on issues such as trade, thus putting India in trouble. In order to cope with this risk, India’s growing sentiment is that it should avoid excessive anger on China, rather than seek coexistence.”
The second reason is Trump's diplomatic style. Reported that Trump claimed that it was his mediation that prevented the war between India and Pakistan. Indian officials said Modi was very angry about this. From New Delhi's perspective, Pakistan's acceptance of the ceasefire reflects the deterrent power of India's military, not Trump's intervention. Trump invited Pakistan Army Chief of Staff Munir to the White House for lunch in June, further deepening the rift between the United States and India.
In an interview with a reporter at the University of Seychelles International Relations Institute, Professor Long Xinghui said that after the Trump administration came to power, more attention was paid to economic development and manufacturing return, so that India's strategic value relatively declined. In South Asia, the United States' importance to Pakistan increased, and India's concern was not as much as before. In this context, India may change its tendency to excessively affinity, strengthen cooperation with China, Russia and other countries, and increase its strategic status through the participation of multilateral mechanisms such as the BRICS countries and the SCO.
Foreign media also believe that the United States and India have opportunities for reconciliation. "Nikkei Asia" said that whether this confrontation can be contained may depend on the "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue" summit to be held in India later this year. At that time, Trump and Modi will have the opportunity to meet face to face. The newspaper believes that even if the two sides reach a settlement, the possibility of a quick restoration of close relations between the two countries is slim. Once trust is broken, it is never easy to rebuild.
Political News Network cites an analysis by several former U.S. and Indian officials that tariffs will wipe out U.S. and Indian strategic cooperation over the past 20 years. A White House official said that a tariff of 50% does not necessarily mean the end of the relationship between the two countries. Though there are many negative comments on the relationship between the two countries in India at the moment, the Indian government still wants to solve the problem, and the Trump administration has the same desire. During the UN General Assembly at the end of September this year, Trump may meet with Modi, when both sides will resolve the dispute.
[Global Times special correspondent in the United States and Germany Xiao Qiang Aoki Global Times reporter Li Xundian Bai Yuan Zhen Xiang]