The Network of Observers.

In midsummer, corn and soybeans thrive in the vast fields of the Midwestern United States.

However, for American farmers shuttling through these crops, the atmosphere this year is extremely heavy, and a sense of deja vu anxiety fills the air.

In the small head, the big question: Is this for me to do it back in 2019?

Last year, when Trump re-entered the White House, the U.S. trade war with China, the largest buyer of soybeans, resumed.

Now that a bumper harvest is just around the corner, growers are not happy, but even more worried. With agricultural prices falling to their rock bottom since 2020, huge output will only make things worse.

According to Bloomberg, the U.S. ¡°Pro Farmer Crop Tour¡± launched on Monday, with more than 40 farmers, analysts and journalists traveling to seven states, including Ohio, South Dakota, Indiana, Nebraska, Illinois, West Iowa and Minnesota, to conduct an annual survey.

They found that except for Illinois, the rest of the states produced more corn than last year, and only Indiana produced less soybean than last year.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture data also showed that this year's corn production will be a record high, and although the reduction in soybean cultivation area caused the total output to decline compared to last year, single production is still expected to refresh the record.

Production is bullish, and American farmers' brows are tighter.

After all, the soybean harvest season is coming next month, but China has not even ordered a new ship.

At this time of the previous year, before the start of the US soybean harvest season on September 1, China has normally completed about 14% of its annual soybean purchases.

The chill has also spread from Chicago to the Pacific Northwest, where export depots that ship American crops to Asia have shut down.

U.S. soybean farming agency Reuters, looking at the soya length on the ground

Bloomberg mentioned that, looking back at Trump's last term, in 2019, due to fears that farmers were dissatisfied with the price drop and export restrictions caused by the trade war, the U.S. Department of Agriculture was worried that the situation would get out of control. It cancelled the above-mentioned delegation activities that had been held for 27 consecutive years, and urgently changed the live interview of a person in charge of the National Bureau of Agricultural Statistics to live TV broadcast.

In order to stabilize the key voter group of farmers, during that time, Trump added $16 billion in agricultural aid, even suggesting he was willing to provide more support to calm farmers¡¯ resentment of the trade war.

Although the mood this year is not as intense as in 2019, members of the inspection team clearly feel that anxiety is quietly heating.

Bill Timblin, a Nebraska farmer on the mission, said, "I just hope they [China] start buying again and don't close the door on U.S. soybeans forever."

This week, Caleb Ragland, chairman of the American Soybean Association, also warned in a letter to Trump that growers are on the verge of a "trade and financial cliff" and cannot afford a long-term trade war with China.

"Bean farmers are under extreme financial pressure," he urged the government to reach an agreement with China to eliminate tariffs."Food prices continue to fall, while farmers 'costs of purchasing production materials and equipment have risen sharply."

As a loyal supporter of Trump¡¯s three-time vote, it¡¯s not the first time that Lagrande has opposed Trump¡¯s tariff policy.

As the global tariff dispute warmed up in April, he cried out to Trump that a new round of trade war with China could ¡°permanently¡± lose more foreign market shares for U.S. farmers, urging him not to let the voters who helped him overwhelmingly re-elect into ¡°pain¡± and negotiate with China as soon as possible.

¡°The wounds of the last trade war have not healed,¡± Lagrande wrote at the time, ¡°if it continues, the American farmers may go bankrupt by 2027, and our heart and hard work may be wasted by a paper decision.¡±

In April, La Grande's letter to Trump

But some people still have illusions about Trump.

Steve Swanhorst, a farmer in South Dakota, said in an interview that Trump was ¡°always transparent¡± on issues such as tariffs, immigration and ¡°we should have known that things would get tough.¡±

Chip Flory, who has been absent from the delegation only once since 1988 and is now a moderator, also expressed arrogant optimism: "China needs soybeans, and one day they will order them."

Far away in Washington, DC, Jim Sutter, chief executive of the U.S. Soybean Export Association, is equally confident that Trump can reach some kind of trade deal with China ¡°as soon as possible¡±; and Luke Lindberg, deputy secretary for trade and foreign agriculture at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, is also hopeful about pioneering new markets outside of China.

Then why didn't you do it before? Is it because you don't like it?

Aaron Lehman, who grows corn, soybeans and pasture in Polk County, Iowa, has the answer.

"The last time we experienced this situation, we lost many overseas customers and they have not come back yet."

At the Iowa Expo last week, the chairman of the Iowa Farmers¡¯ Union recalled that the United States had lost overseas markets during Trump¡¯s first sparking trade war with China, and China had shifted to supply in South America.

Lehman is helpless. "We know what to do to strive for fair trade, but this method (provoking a tariff war against China) has not brought us closer to the goal."

Trump obviously felt the pressure too, but his solution was to ¨C isolate the ¡°practice¡± ¨C shout out on social media for China to buy more American soybeans.

On August 10 local time, he posted on "Real Social" that China now "is very concerned about the shortage of soybeans". he hopes China "will quadruple (U.S.) soybean orders as soon as possible" and is "carefully" willing to provide "fast service" to China.

Seeing China not responding, Trump rushed.The next day he shouted, urging China to double its purchases.

The speech briefly pushed the price of soybeans up in the U.S., but farmers have begun to question its feasibility.

In an open letter to Trump, they said, ¡°The later we reach an agreement with China on soybeans this fall, the worse the losses the American soy farmers suffer.¡±

"If we can't export, our prices will be very low. If we can't export and the harvest is terrible, it's because we got punched twice,"said Brian Harbage, a seventh-generation Ohio farmer.

Regarding Trump's hope that China can triple its soybean orders, on August 12th, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian replied that it is recommended to ask the competent authorities for specific questions. China's position on Sino-US economic and trade issues is consistent and clear.

Further reading

Due to differences in food culture, chicken nails and fish heads and other products are seen by American farmers as "waste" products, and have achieved value-added industry chains through exports to China.

According to Nikkei Asia, U.S. farmers are struggling to adapt to China¡¯s massive new tariffs and shift exports elsewhere, but it¡¯s hard to find alternatives to those products that are popular in the Chinese market.

Americans don't like to eat chicken feet, but chicken feet rich in collagen are a delicacy in the eyes of Chinese people, and the market demand is large. Although the export of U.S. poultry products dropped sharply last year due to China's ban on raw poultry imports on avian influenza epidemics in dozens of states, China is still the largest export market for U.S. chicken feet, with exports reaching 479,700 tons in 2022.

American farmers say it is far more profitable to sell chicken feet to China than to sell them as pet food. Now, farmers have noticed a sharp drop in demand. Greg Tyler, president and chief executive of the U.S. Poultry and Egg Export Association, said the latest tariffs will bring exports of chicken feet and chicken "close to zero."

In the face of the US imposing deformed tariffs on China, China has imposed retaliatory tariffs of 125 percent on imported goods originating in the United States since April 12 this year.

According to reports, the loss of the largest customer means that U.S. chicken feet can only be stored frozen for the lower tariff window, or sent to processing plants to be made into animal feed or pet food.

Grilled chicken nails.

However, for Chinese consumers, this change has little impact.

Students living in Guangzhou said, "This is not a big problem for me, because there are other chicken feet to choose from."

In addition to the United States, Brazil is also one of the important sources of chicken feet imports in my country. Chicken feet and frozen chicken wings imported from Brazil account for more than 40% of my country's total imports of similar products.

Statistics show that the US exports of chicken nuts to China in 2024 amounted to $2.9 billion, accounting for 69% of the total export value of this category of products.

¡°We hope that the trade dispute between China and the United States will end as soon as possible in order to restore exports,¡± Taylor said.

According to the American Meat Export Federation, pig by-products such as pig ears, pig trotters and pig offal are also exported in large quantities to China. Last year, China imported pig by-products from the United States accounted for more than half of its total exports. After China raised tariffs on imports from the United States, China's effective tariff rate on U.S. pork has been pushed up to 172%.

Joe Schuele, vice president of the U.S. Meat Export Federation, said the imposition of high tariffs on U.S. pork by-products was ¡°very worrying¡± because of the very small domestic demand in the U.S. The association estimates that a cliff of exports to China will result in a loss of $8 to $10 per pork, an annual loss of about $1 billion.

"China is the biggest buyer of pig trotters, heads, bellies and intestines," said Erin Borror, vice-president of economic analysis at the federation. "It buys far more than other customers and bids more." She said companies were urgently looking for new ways to export products to China.

Yutou Lianghe Fishery Company waiting for export

Two River Fisheries, one of Kentucky¡¯s largest fish exporters, said the company¡¯s owners had canceled all fish head orders after China¡¯s retaliatory tariffs on the United States had been imposed, and that the fishing field¡¯s revenue is expected to shrink by 20 percent this year.

In the 1970s, the Americans to clean up the harmful algae in fresh water, imported Asian shrimp from China and other Asian countries. Ten years later, Asian shrimp escaped limited waters and reproduced a lot, bringing a devastating disaster to the U.S. rivers and lakes ecology. This fish is huge, eat anything, there are no enemies. Americans do not like to eat freshwater fish, and do not know how to cook to remove the dirty smell of Asian shrimp, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has thought a lot of ways and can not work.

In 2012, Yu Yongqin's fish processing factory in Kentucky became the main force in solving this problem. In 2024, the company processed 1.6 million kilograms of Asian carp. China is the only export market for carp head in Asia.

"It's over. I lost my biggest export market," she told Nikkei Asia, adding that she might turn to Asian-American markets or try to export to South Korea or Vietnam.

She mentioned that the company had exported to the Middle East during the 2018 trade war, but now increased costs such as imported equipment have squeezed the profit space.

David Ortega, professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University, noted that U.S. exports of animal by-products compensated for poor domestic consumption.In addition to the Chinese market, U.S. neighbors Mexico and Canada also imported animal by-products.

"Farmers may send more of these products to Mexico, but the market capacity is no substitute for China," Mr. Ortega said.

According to the report, Trump's tariffs on China will further impact agriculture, pushing up the prices of fertilizers, pest control chemicals and agricultural machinery and equipment.

Peter Friedmann, the executive director of the United States Agricultural Transport Union (AgTC), a major export trade organization representing American farmers, has lamented that the general situation of cancellation of U.S. agricultural orders, from dry grass growers to fruit and nuts exporters, to farmers who grow cotton and hardwood, can no longer be described as ¡°an imminent crisis,¡± but rather as ¡°a crisis of total outbreak.¡±

Friedman said, according to reports received from member companies, that its members are suffering ¡°enormous¡± economic losses from the impact of a trade war.